Weekly Fundamental Forecasts 27 – 31 Jan

Fundamental data/events which may influence market  this week:

  1. German Ifo Business Climate Index. Monday at 09:00 . The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. The index is compiled by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research.Last read was 109.5, Forecast is 110.0. Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
  2. US New Home Sales. Monday at 15:00. New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated. The last read was 464 K, Forecast is 460 K. Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  3. NAB Business Confidence. Tuesday at 00:30 . The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. The index is based on data collected from a survey of around 350 companies. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions.Last Read 5 . Forecast – . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
  4. UK GDP (YoY). Tuesday at 09:30 . Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. Last read 1.9% .Forecast – . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
  5. UK GDP (QoQ). Tuesday at 09:30. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.Last read 0.8% .forecast – . Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
  6. US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) . Tuesday at 13:30. Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity. Last read 1.2% .Forecast 0.5% . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  7. US CB Consumer Confidence. Tuesday at 15:00. Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in the overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. The last read was 78.1.Forecast 78.9. Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  8.  BOE Gov Carney Speaks. Wednesday at 12: 15. He will speak at the Scottish Council for Development and Industry members luncheon, in Edinburgh . as head of the central bank – Bank of England – which controls short-term rates, he has more influence on the value of the country’s currency more than anyone else, his words usually affect the near future of the currency. Market Impact: Volatility is expected.
  9.  US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Decision. Wednesday at 19: 00. The FOMC statement contains the Fed’s collective outlook on the economy as well as hints about future monetary policy while the change to interest rates is nothing more than a number. The statement provides clues on plans for the future. When it comes to interest rates, the future direction of rates is usually far more important than its current rate. Market Impact: If the Fed raises the interest rate above 0.25 %, that should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while If the Fed lowers the rate below 0.25%, that should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  10.  RBNZ Interest Rate Decision. Wednesday at 20: 00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. Market Impact: If (RBNZ) keeps the rate unchanged  2.5% or rises it above 2.5% that should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while If the (RBNZ)  lower the rate below 2.5%, that should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZDD.
  11. US GDP (QoQ). Thursday at 13: 30.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. The last read was 4.1 %, Forecast  302 %.Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  12. US Jobless Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. The last read was 326K, Forecast is 331K. Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  13. US Pending Home Sales (MoM).Thursday at 15: 00. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction. Last read 0.2 %.Forecast 0.3 %. Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  14. Japanese National Consumer Price Index (YoY) .Thursday at 23:30 .The National Consumer Price Index is released by the Statistics Bureau and it’s a measure of price movements obtained by comparison of the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. CPI is the most significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends. The purchase power of JPY is dragged down by inflation.Last read was 1.5% . Market Impact : Generally a high reading is seen as positive for the JPY.
  15. Canadian GDP (MoM) . Friday at 13:30 .Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. Canada releases fresh GDP data on a monthly basis.last read 0.3%. Forecast 0.2%.Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

All times are GMT.

MARKET DATA

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS

1 COMMENT

  1. Thanks a lot for all the  explanations about Forex and specially  about all the news very clear &  very usefull . Thanks again . I save all that by printing them and read them often
    one more question : Does euro/usd follows  the same direction than the stock market 0r vice versa  ?thanks
     

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