Weekly Fundamental Forecasts 13 – 17 Jan

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This week has lot of critical data , pay attention on Thursday ?!!!

Fundamental data/events which may influence market  this week:

  1. US Federal Budget Balance: Monday, 19:00.The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit that’s in general in general.last read was +135.2 B. this month id expected to released around 44.0 B. Note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  2. UK CPI yoy: Tuesday 09:30 . The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. expectations are unchanged  2.1% as the last release . note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
  3. US Core Retail Sales m/m : Tuesday 13:30 .Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.Expectation are unchanged as the last release at 0.4% . Note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  4. US Retail Sales (mom) Dec : Tuesday 13:30 .Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. last month was released at 0.7% , this month is expected is to be released around 0.1%. Note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  5. US PPI mom : Wednesday 13:30 . The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. expectations are 0.1% exactly as the previous read . Note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  6. Australian Employment Change :Thursday 00:30 , It released monthly by Australian Bureau of Statistics , It measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending. last month was 21.0 K , this month is expected to decline towards 7.5 K . Note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
  7. Australian Unemployment Rate : Thursday 00:30 , The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Thais month is expected to be the same as the previous month 5.8% . A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD.
  8. US Core CPI (MoM) : Thursday 13:30 . The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.last month was 0.2% , expectations for this month are 0.1% .Note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  9. US Initial Jobless Claims : Thursday 13:30 .Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. last week made a huge decline towards 330 K , this week is expected to make a slight decline towards 326 K . Note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index : Thursday 15:30 .The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions in general .last month was 7.0, this month is expected to make small gains towards 8.7. note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  11. US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks : Thursday 16:10 .Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak, as head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person, his words usually used as  hints of future monetary policy, his comments may also determine a short-term  trend direction . note that volatility is expected , it depends on his words .
  12. UK Retail Sales (MoM): Friday 09:30 .Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. last month was 0.3%, a small gain to 0.4% is expected this month . note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
  13.  US Building Permits : Friday 13:30 .Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market. this month is expected to be the same as the previous month 1.01 M. Note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  14. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment : Friday 14:55 .The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions, there are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised, the preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. Last month was 82.5 , a small gain to 83.5  is in sight this month .Note that A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

All times are GMT …

MARKET DATA

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS