Weekly Fundamental Forecast Dec 01 2014

Fundamental
Fundamental

Tomorrow , Focus will be on Swiss vote on gold holdings , this is an early warning of the next move for several weeks , anyway , Last week , the EURUSD benefited of 2 things , strong German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov) last Monday , and holiday in US , the pair recovered a little bit , but losses back on the last day of the week . Next week focus will be on US nonfarm payroll  , will the USD continue its strength ? or it’s time to take a rest for a while ! Conclusion : last week the USD was strong against the GBP , JPY , AUD , CAD  and was weak only against the CHF , and finally was neutral against the EUR & NZD , let’s highlight the most critical events which influence currency market next week  :

Monday, December 1 :

  • Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Nov) at 01:00 , last read was 50.8 , this week is expected to decline to 50.5 . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY & the AUD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY the AUD.
  • Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Nov) at 01:45 , last read was 50.0 , expectation is remain the same at 50.0 . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY & the AUD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY the AUD.
  • German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) at 08:55 . Last read was 50.0 , expectation remains the same 50.0 . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
  • UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov) at 06:30 . Last read was 53.2 , this is expected to decline to 53.0 . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) at 15:00 . last read was 59.0 , forecast is 58.0 . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Tuesday, December 2:

  • (RBA) Interest Rate Decision (Dec) at 03:30 , last read 2.50% , expectation to remain unchanged 2.50% . Market Impact : A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD. note that leaving the rate unchanged will bring high volatility in both directions !
  • UK Construction PMI (Nov) at 09:30 . Last read 61.4 , forecast is 61.0 . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
  • US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at 13:30 . Federal Reserve Chair Jannet Yellen (February 2014 – February 2018) is to speak ,her comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend of the US dollar…

Wednesday, December 3:

  • Australian GDP (YoY) (Q3) at 00:30 . Last read 3.1% , forecast is 3.1% . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
  • Australian GDP (QoQ) (Q3) at 00:30 . Last read 0.5% , forecast is 0.7% . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
  •  UK Services PMI (Nov) at 09:30 . Last read was 56.2 ,forecast is 56.6 . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
  • US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) at 13:15 . Last read was 230K , forecast 224K. Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) at 15:00 . Last read 57.1 , forecast is 57.5 . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  • Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision at 15:00 . Last rate was : 1.00% , forecast is 1.00% . Market Impact :A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. note that leaving the rate unchanged will bring high volatility in both directions !

Thursday, December 4:

  •  Australian Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) at 00:30 .last read 1.2% , forecast is 0.1% . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
  • Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Dec) at 12:00 . last rate was 0.50% , forecast is 0.50% . Market Impact : A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP. note that leaving the rate unchanged will bring high volatility in both directions !
  • ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) at 12:45 . Last rate 0.05% , forecast is 0.05% . Market Impact :  A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR. note that leaving the rate unchanged will bring high volatility in both directions !
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 . Last read was 313K, forecast 290K . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  • Canadian Ivey PMI (Nov) at 15:00 . Last read was 51.2 , forecast is 53.00 . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Friday, December 5:

  • US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) at 13:30 . Last read was 214K , forecast is 225K . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  • US Unemployment Rate (Nov) at 13:30 . Last rate was 5.8% . forecast is 5.8% . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  • Canadian Employment Change (Nov) at 13:30 . Last read was 43.1K , forecast is 5.0K. Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

*All times are GMT

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