Outlook in USDJPY remains on the upside as long as support 112.47/114.50 holds on a weekly closing basis , next resistance comes at the 117.00 levels , a clear break will turn focus on the 120.00 levels .
On the downside , support comes at the 114.50 levels ahead of the 112.47 levels (main) ,stability above support levels will keep the bullish momentum intact , however ; losing the 112.47 levels on a weekly basis will turn outlook neutral towards the 110.08/107.59 levels and bring consolidation before the next rise .
In all , as long as support 112.47/114.50 holds on a weekly closing basis , , outlook in USDJPY remains on the upside towards the 117.00 levels ahead of the 120.00 levels ,sustained trading below the 112.47 levels will bring pullback towards the 110.08/107.59 levels before the next rise.
Note that stability above the 114.50 levels on a weekly basis , will turn 114.50 to a strong support level , If seen , focus will be on the 117.00/120.00 levels the upcoming weeks.
Let’s take a quick look at key events which may influence USDJPY pair next week :
- US Initial Jobless Claims , Thursday at 13:30 .Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Last read was 278K , Forecast is 280K . Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
- US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) , Friday at 13:30 .Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Last read was -0.3% , Forecast is 0.2% . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) , Friday at 14:55 .The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.Last read was 86.9 , Forecast is 87.5 . Market Impact:A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
*All times are GMT
Conclusion : Watch out for news near support and resistance levels , positive data should advance the pair further high , while negative data could bring a pullback , news in middle of range (between support and resistance ) could bring sideways move ! but remember : the pair remains bullish , so any decline should be contained well by major support levels.