Last Friday , Bank of Japan surprised the whole world by announcing that it would expand QE program by 80 Trillion yen, buying 8-10 Trillion of JGBs per month. As a result , the USDJPY pair jumped over 400 pips . This announcement should effect all yen crosses at the least for a few weeks , probably month(s) . The Japanese yen is very bearish , with strong US economy , don’t be surprised If you see the USDJPY pair beyond the 115.00 levels , massive bullish moves couldn’t be ruled out the upcoming weeks . However ; This week focus will be on BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks next Wednesday , comments are very important and could shake up the market again . In all , any comments related to QE program should bring high volatility , any delay or changes in QE program could delay the bearish move of Japanese Yen a little bit before the next fall, let’s highlight the most critical data which may affect the USDJPY pair this week :
Monday Nov 03 2014
- United States will release data on ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) .
Tuesday Nov 04 2014
- United State will release data on Trade Balance (Sep).
Wednesday Nov 05 2014
- From Japan BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks , and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
- USA will release its report on ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct) , later on the day another data will be released on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct).
Thursday Nov 06 2014
- US will release its weekly report on Initial Jobless Claims.
Friday Nov 07 2014
- United States will release report on Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) and Unemployment Rate (Oct).
Events will be discussed during the week …..
Technical Outlook :
- Weekly Chart
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum last week, printed support at the 107.59 levels .This development leaves the pair targeting the 114.50 levels , a halt is likely , but break of the 114.50 levels will turn focus on the 117.00 levels, further upside will call for for a run towards the 120.00 levels.
On the downside , support comes at the 110.08 levels ahead of the 107.59 levels (main) ,stability above support levels will keep the bullish momentum intact , however ; losing the 110.08 levels on a weekly basis will turn outlook neutral towards the 107.59/105.19 levels and bring consolidation before the next rise .
In all , as long as support 110.08 holds on a weekly closing basis , , outlook in USDJPY remains on the upside towards the 114.50 levels ahead of the 117.00 levels ,sustained trading below the 110.08 levels will bring pullback towards the 107.59/105.19 levels before the next rise.
Note that stability above the 112.47 levels on a weekly basis , will turn 112.47 to a strong support level , If seen , focus will be on the 117.00/120.00 levels the upcoming weeks.
- Daily Chart
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum last Friday , printed support at the 109.16 levels .This development leaves the pair targeting the 113.80 levels , a halt is likely , but a break would open 115.50 next , further upside will aim the 117.35 levels..
On the downside , support comes at the 110.08 levels , ahead of the 109.16 levels, below this level will open 108.34 levels , a halt is likely , but losing the 108.34 levels will bring a corrective pullback towards the 107.10/105.19 levels before the next rise .
In all , as long as support 108.34 holds on a daily closing basis , outlook in USDJPY remains on the upside towards the 113.80 levels ahead of the 115.50 levels , below the 108.34 levels will turn outlook neutral towards the 107.10/105.19 levels before the next rise…
Weekly support comes at the 110.08 levels , daily chart support comes at the 110.08 levels , as a result we have strong demand zone at the 110.00 levels , so any decline should be limited by this level , watch out for news near support levels , positive data should advance the pair in our favor , negative data should be taken as an opportunity to buy on dips !!!