USDJPY – Weekly Forecast 30 Dec-03 Jan

Recommendations: LONG positions above 104.35 with 105.90 & 106.80  as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 104.35 will call for a slide to 103.70/103.00.
Description: Initial bias remains on the upside this week, current uptrend is likely to target 106.80 levels . On the downside, below 104.35 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations for retesting 103.70/103.00 levels before the next rise.

Support and resistance  : 102.30, 103.00 , 103.70 , 104.35 (Pivot) ,105.40, 105.90 ,106.80, 107.60

Key data/events which may influence USDJPY this week:

  1. US – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) – Monday  15:00 GMT – The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.Pending Home Sales has been falling the past few months , the last read was -0.6% ,this month is expected to rise to 1.0%.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  2. US – CB Consumer Confidence – Tuesday 15:00 GMT – Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. . CB Consumer Confidence has been falling the past few months , the last read was -70.4  ,this month is expected to gain to 76.0  . note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  3. US – Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday   13:30 GMT –  Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.Initial claims was declined to 338 K  last week , this week is expected to continue falling towards 334 K . Note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  4. US –  ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) –  Thursday 15:00 GMT – The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50  is bullish , whereas a reading  below 50 is seen as bearish. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.This indicator continued to rise since last April , last month was 57.3, this month is expected to make a slight decline towards 57.0.Note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

All times are GMT

MARKET DATA

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS