USDJPY – Weekly Forecast 29 Jul – 02 Aug 2013

The USDJPY declined as suggested last week fall from 103.73 still treated as a consolidation pattern, and fall from 101.52 treated as the second leg of this consolidation.

On the daily chart. The daily close below 98.88 opens the way towards 97.20. At this point, a halt is suggested, and we might see a retest to 98.88 levels before exposing 97.20 levels. But in all; Below 97.20 levels will pave the way towards 95.03 ahead of 93.78 levels.

On the upside, resistance comes at 98.88, a break of this level would delay the downside move and open the way towards  101.52 where rejection is also suggested. Above 101.52 will flip bias back to the upside for retesting the main resistance 103.73.

In all… As long as the 101.52/103.73 levels hold. The pair will remain under pressure with risk to the downside towards 94.00 levels ahead of 92.00 levels.

Support and resistance levels : 92.55 , 93.78, 95.03 , 97.20 , 98.88 ,99.61, 100.84 , 101.52 ,102.51 , 103.73 (On the daily chart )

below 101.52 bearish, above 101.52 neutral, above 103.73 bullish…

Here are the most important events for USDJPY pair next week :

Monday 29 July 

 JPY Household Spending y/y at 23:30

It’s one of the most important measures of economic health.

– US Pending Home Sales:  at 14:00.

It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect.

–  JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m at 23:50

It’s a leading indicator of economic health

Tuesday 30 July 

– US CB Consumer Confidence:  at 14:00

It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

Wednesday 31 July 

–  JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y at 01:30

Average Cash Earnings measures the change in employment income, including bonuses and overtime pay. Higher income is positive for consumption.

– US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: at  12:15

Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity

– US Advance GDP: at 12:30

It’s the most important measurement of economic activity and the primary measurement of the economy’s health.

– FOMC Statement: at 18:00

It discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

Thursday 01 Aug

– US Unemployment Claims: at 12:30

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, this is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

– US ISM Manufacturing PMI: at 14:00

It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions,

Friday 02 Aug 

– US Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:30.

Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

– Unemployment rate:  at 12:30.

The number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

All times  are GMT