USDJPY – Weekly Forecast 26-30 Aug 2013

The USDJPY maintained some bullish momentum last week, now the pressure will be on the key resistance  98.80. The USDJPY will have to hold above the 98.80 levels on a daily closing basis to resume its last upside offensive, If seen focus will be on the 99.95 levels, a breach will look for the 100.86/101.52 levels. At this point I’d expect  a strong resistance from 100.56/101.52 levels to contain rise from 95.80 levels and bring reversal to the downside, sustained break of 100.86/101.52 levels is early that fall from 103.73 probably is over, however; If seen It would pave the way towards the 103.73 levels, above 103.73  will target 104.65 ahead of 105.95.

On the downside, a failure to hold above the 98.80 levels could mean a return to the 97.58 levels, losing this level on a daily closing basis will open 95.80 levels, a break will target the 93.78 levels, furthermore will aim the 90.80 levels.

In all, as long as 97.58 holds on a daily closing basis, the pair will remain biased to the upside in short term with risk towards the 100.00 levels and beyond, losing the 97.58 will flip bias back to the downside towards 95.80 levels.

On the weekly chart, the pair still in consolidation mode, resistance is 99.55 ahead of 100.86, then 101.52 and the last level is 103.73, above 103.73 will have large bullish implication towards the 111.00 levels.

Support comes at 95.80, a break would open 93.78, below 93.78  would target 92.56 levels, losing this level on a weekly closing basis will have large bearish implication towards the 87.00 levels ahead of the 85.00 levels.

In all, with the key support 93.78  intact on a weekly closing basis, sudden rise couldn’t be ruled out towards the 103.73 levels and beyond, resistance is at 99.27, stability above this level on a weekly closing losing basis may bring a sudden rise towards the 103.73 levels, losing 93.78  on a weekly closing basis is likely to expose the 92.55 levels and open the way towards the 87.00/85.00 levels.

Conclusion : the weekly close above 99.27 levels 8 weeks ago was supposed to open 103.73 and beyond but the pair failed to raise and corrected a bit but support 93.78 was held, on the daily chart, last week we had the only bullish momentum  on daily since then, so this week it might try 100.86/101.52 and possible higher, support is at 97.58 levels, sustained break above the 101.52 is likely to expose the 103.73 levels…
Support and Resistance levels on daily : 90.85, 92.55 , 93.78 , 95.80, 97.58 , 98.80 , 100.00 , 101.52. 103.73, 104.65, 105.95

Trend Strength (daily chart):

Bullish : above 97.58

Neutral : below 97.58

Bearish : below 95.80

Live Chart Of  USDJPY

Key data/events which may influence USDJPY this week:

  • US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Monday  12:30 pm
  • US CB Consumer Confidence, Tuesday  2:00 pm
  • US Pending Home Sales m/m, Wednesday 2:00 pm
  • US Prelim GDP q/q, Thursday, 12:30 pm
  • US Unemployment Claims, Thursday 12:30 pm

All times are GMT

USDJPY Daily Chart

USDJPY Weekly  Chart




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