USDJPY – Weekly Forecast 12-16 Aug 2013

Although the USDJPY declined last week, broke below the 96.95 levels, It found a temporary support at the 95.80 levels (support on weekly), resistance is at 96.97 levels, at this point the USDJPY will have to break and hold above the 96.97 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further upside gains ,If seen, a bottom will be confirmed at 95.80 levels in short-term, and the way will be paved towards the 98.57 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 100.00 levels, above 100.00 will look for 101.52 levels.

Alternatively, a failure to hold above the 96.97 levels could mean a return to the 95.80 levels, a break below 95.80 will open the way towards the 94.95 ahead of the 93.78 levels and possible lower towards the 92.55 levels.

In the medium/long term view, fall from 103.73 levels still treated as a consolidation pattern, main support on weekly is at 93.78 ahead of 92.55, main resistance is at 101.52 ahead of 103.73 with both levels intact, fall from 103.73 could extend towards the 93.78/92.55 levels, a halt is suggested  around those levels but losing them on a weekly closing basis will  bring a free fall towards the 87.00 levels.

Support and Resistance levels on daily : 92.55 , 93.78 , 95.80, 96.97 , 98.57 , 100.00 , 101.52. 103.73

Key data/events which may influence USD/JPY next week:

  • JP Prelim GDP q/q
  • US  Retail Sales
  • US  PPI
  • US  CPI
  • US Unemployment Claims
  • US  Housing Starts & Building Permits
  • US Univ. of Michigan Aug Consumer Sentiment.

Live Chart of USDJPY