USDJPY Forecast Feb 10-14

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Recommendations: SHORT positions below 103.45 with 101.15. & 99.15 as  next targets.

Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 103.45 will open 104.85/105.45 levels.

Description: Outlook in USDJPY is neutral this week with risk to the downside first, losing the 101.60 levels last week should open 101.15/ 99.15 levels, the pair already rebounded from 101.15 levels , resistance at the 102.92 ahead of the 103.45 levels, stability below this level could mean a return to the 101.15 levels and possible lower towards the 100.00/99.15 levels. On the upside , break of 103.45 on a daily basis will suggest that fall below 101.60 is over around 101.15 levels and the pair is likely to recapture the 104.85 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 105.45 levels.

Support & Resistance :97.97 , 99.15,100.80 ,101.60 , 103.45 (Pivot) , 104.85 , 105.43 , 106.65

Key data/events which may influence USDJPY this week:
  • U.S Fed’s Yellen Speech, Tuesday at 15:00 GMT. Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC. Market Impact: A hawkish outlook is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish)for the USD.
  • U.S Core Retail Sales (MoM).  Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy. Last read 0.7% ,Forecast 0.1% . Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  • U.S Initial Jobless Claims. Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Last read 331K, Forecast 330K. Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  • U.S Retail Sales (MoM). Thursday at 13:30. Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.Last read 0.2% ,Forecast 0.3% . Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  • U.S Fed’s Yellen Speech. Thursday at 15:00 GMT. He will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. Market Impact: A hawkish outlook is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish)for the USD.
  • U.S Michigan Consumer Sentiment.Friday at 14: 55. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers. Last read 81.2, Forecast 80.7. Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

 

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USDJPY Forecast Feb 10-14

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