USDJPY: Bearish Move is Limited By Rising Trend Support…
The USDJPY remains on the downside as long as trades below 113.40 on a daily closing basis. Support comes at 112.29. A halt is likely, but a cut would open 111.75, further down, support comes at 111.05 level.
On the upside, resistance comes at 113.40 level, a break will bring limited gains to 113.83/114.20 level, next resistance comes around 114.55/114.75 levels.
Conclusion: The USDJPY sees downside threats below 113.40 level with risk to 112.29 level. Above 113.40 sees recovery threats to 113.83/114.20 levels.
Support: 112.29, 111.75, 111.05, 110.53, 110.05
Resistance: 112.75, 113.40, 113.83, 114.20, 114.55
The U.S will report on Nonfarm Payrolls for Nov at 13:30 GMT. The forecast is to decline 200K, from 250K a month earlier. Above forecast will support the U.S dollar. Below-forecast is negative for the USD.
The U.S will also report on the Unemployment Rate for Nov at 13:30 GMT. The forecast is to remains the same as the previous month 3.7%. Below-forecast will support the U.S dollar. Above forecast is negative for the USD.
How both reports (Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate) will affect the market?!
Scenario # 1: If both reports are positive. The USDJPY will rise to 113.40 level. A break is not easy at all. Basically; this could be a selling opportunity, Above 113.40 will be limited by 113.83 level but I strongly believe it should fall to 113.00, from 113.40 before attempts any try to take out 113.40 levels…
Scenario # 2: If both reports are negative, The USDJPY will continue falling, it will test 112.29 level, a cut through support couldn’t be ruled out. Next support comes at 111.75 level.
Scenario # 3: One report is positive and the other is negative. A sideways move is expected within 112.29/113.40 range.