US Initial Jobless Claims could be an opportunity to short EURUSD at resistance !

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Usual Effect: A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as negative  for the USD, while a low reading is positive.

Frequency : Released weekly, every Thursday.

Date and time : Today at 13:30 GMT

Last Read : 278 K

Expectations : 280 K

Actual : ??!!!

Volatility :   Medium  – High Volatility . ( varies from week to week ).

Market Impact :

We have 3 Scenarios for the USD : 

• Scenario 1 : A reading between (278 K : 282 K ) , will bring sideways move with possible to break higher..
• Scenario 2 : A reading below 278 K , will bring bullish move for the USD , could break 1 or 2 levels higher .
• Scenario 3 : A reading above  282 K, will bring bearish move for the USD , could test 1 or 2 support levels before the next rise ..

EURUSD :

Trend direction : downward (Faces a recovery risk ) .

Support and resistance : 1.2200 , 1.2300 , 1.2357 , 1.2393, 1.2418 , 1.2497 , 1.2508 , 1.2576 , 1.2630

Levels need to watched : 1.2357 , 1.2393 , 1.2508 ,1.2576, 1.2630

Conclusion : The pair is bearish in long and medium term , any positive US data is likely to accelerate  the bearish move , below 1.2508 , it will remain under pressure , sustained trading – daily closing below 1.2393 will bring a lower leg below 1.2357 levels .On the upside : any negative US data is likely to bring rebound , but rebound should be limited by the 1.2508 levels . however , If the pair manage to break above 1.2508 , It should face a strong resistance at 1.2576/1.2630 levels….