Millions of people have begun casting their votes in the United Kingdom general election today .British polling stations opened their doors Thursday at (06,00 GMT) in an election is a highly competitive and difficult to predict the results between the conservatives, led by Prime Minister David Cameron and Labour, led by Ed Miliband.
what we do care here is the impact of this election on the sterling…
As I see , the impact of U.K general election of 2015 can be divided into 2 stages :
1- Within election period : Few days before election + election day + few days after election :
I think GBPUSD will fluctuate within 1.5000/1.5500 range “volatility” is suggested !!!
2- Post election period : few days after election + few weeks after election :
I think the GBPUSD will decline but the strength of fall depends on the winning party of this election !!!!
A)) : If the winner shows military tendencies ; The GBPUSD will be under heavy pressure , It might fall towards the 1.4500/1.4600 levels or fluctuate around this level before the next rise…
B)) : If the winner doesn’t show military tendencies ; The GBPUSD will decline less , It might fall toward 1.5000/1.4800 range before the next rise….
In both cases , I think the impact of UK election will be negative on GBPUSD , I do believe the impact will last for 3 or 4 months , then the pound will start rising slowly , It won’t be a clear and direct rise , It will be a cautious rise towards 1.5700/1.6000 levels…I think the cable could reach that level by the end of 2015 , or in the beginning of 2016 (Jan & Feb)…………