Market Weekly Outlook Sept 19 2016

Investors will be looking to Wednesday’s highly-anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting, for further clues on the timing of the next U.S rate hike and the strength of the U.S economy...


Last Week Recap:

1.The U.S dollar gained against a basket of major currencies on Friday, after a strong U.S inflation data, the dollar jumped to a more than two-week high.

2.The British pound came under pressure after Band of England kept monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, but the central bank indicates that it could cut interest rates later in November if needed…

Ahead of the coming week, here is a list of the biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets this week:

1- August U.S Housing data

The U.S will report on August Building Permits on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect a rise to 1.170 M , from 1.144 M a month earlier.

Later on Thursday at 14:00 GMT, the U.S will release data on Existing Home Sales, Analysts expect a rise to 5.45 M , from 5.39 M in the last month.

2- Bank Of Japan Policy Meeting Minutes

The Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate and publish its rate statement on Wednesday early in Asian hours, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement will be followed by a press conference.

Note that a rate cut deeper into the negative territory could be seen next Wednesday, If this scenario happens, it would support the Yen against most of the currencies, especially , USD, EUR & GBP…

3- Fed Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision and publish data on its economic projections for the coming two years on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT.

We could summarize the next fed’s meeting with these points:

  • The Fed is expected to keep interests rate on hold …
  • The central bank will also release its latest forecasts for economic growth for further indications on the strength of the U.S economy.
  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference 30 minutes after the release of the Fed’s statement.

Conclusion: Upon recent U.S data and technical analysis, I think the outcomes of the Fed’s meeting will be limited gains for the USD…most likely: a light hawkish tone is expected.

4- RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its latest interest rate and publish its rate statement on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT.

The central bank is expected to keep rates on hold after cutting them by 25 basis points to a record-low 2.0% last month. Watch out,

Watch out: NZDUSD is down below 0.7363 levels, this scenario may push the pair toward this level, If seen, that would be a selling opportunity.

5- German Manufacturing PMI

Germany will release data on its Manufacturing PMI on Friday at 07:30 GMT. Analysts expect a decline to 53.1, from 53.6 in the previous month.

You can follow the rest of this week’s economic events by visiting: