Market Weekly Outlook Aug 05 2019

Forex- 658974845

In the week ahead. Investors will shift their focus on the US-China trade war. Central banks meeting in Australian and New Zealand. Fed speakers as well as economic data from the U.K.

  • US-China trade war

US President Donald Trump has raised tension over the trade war between his country and China. China said to respond to any US action against it. A simple tweet for Tramp may turn markets upside down.

  • Central banks meeting
  1. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement on Tuesday at 04:30 GMT. No change in policy is expected. A selling opportunity is likely.
  2. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement on Wednesday at 02:00 GMT. The central bank is expected to cut the interest rate by a quarter-point. From 1.50% to 1.25%. A selling opportunity is likely.
  • Fed Speakers
  1. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on Tuesday at 16:00 GMT.
  2.  Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on Wednesday at 16:00 GMT.
  • U.S Economic Data

The U.S economic calendar is very light for this week. The focus will be on:

  1. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul). Monday at 14:00 GMT.
  2. PPI (MoM) (Jul) on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
  • U.K Economic Data
  1. Composite PMI (Jul) + Services PMI (Jul) on Monday at 08:30 GMT.
  2. Final GDP/q2 + Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun) on Friday at 08:30 GMT.
  • Other economic data
  1. Japan final GDP/q2 on Thursday at 23:50 GMT. A selling opportunity is likely.
  2. Canada Ivey PMI (Jul) on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT.
  3. Canada Employment Change (Jul) on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

You can track this news in real-time at the following link below:

Live Economic Calendar

U.S Dollar Index Faces Pullback Threats!

As long as 98.35 resistance holds on a daily closing basis. The U.S dollar index remains in a pullback mode and further down couldn’t be ruled out. Support comes at 97.78 levels. A halt is likely, but a cut would extend the corrective pullback to 97.38 levels with a break below here opening the way to 96.98 levels ahead of 96.29 levels. Next support comes at 95.83 levels.

On the upside. The U.S.D INdex will have to break and hold above the 98.35 levels on a daily closing basis to prebent a return to the downside. If seen it will aim the 99.00 levels. Furthermore, resistance comes at 100.00 levels ahead of 100.55 levels.

In conclusion: The U.S.D Index remains exposed to the downside below 98.35 levels.

Support: 97.98, 97.38, 96.98, 96.29, 95.83

Resistance: 99.00, 100.00, 100.55, 101.15, 101.85

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF). (In this order according to the strength of the effect, from the strongest -EUR- to the weakest CHF). The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains “strength” (value) when compared to other currencies and vice versa…


U_S Dollar Index Faces Pullback Threats