EURUSD: Still Faces Corrective Pullback Threats!
As long as 1.1936 resistance holds on a weekly closing basis, the EURUSD remains in a pullback mode and further down could be seen in EURUSD, immediate support comes at the 1.1716 levels, a failure to hold below that level on a weekly closing basis could mean a return to the 1.1936 levels where another fall is likely, however;
USDCHF: As long as 0.9678 support holds on a weekly closing basis, the pair remains up with risk to the 0.9955/1.0017 levels, below0.9678 sees a pullback risk to the 0.9420 levels….click on the chart to enlarge.
below 1.1716 will turn the focus on the 1.1615 levels, further down, support stands at the 1.1427 levels ahead of the 1.1298 levels.
On the upside, above 1.1936 will open 1.2091 levels where another fall is likely, a weekly closing above 1.2091 will restore the upside momentum and pave the way to the 1.2220/1.2570 levels.
Conclusion: The EURUSD continues to face pullback threats below 1.2091/1.1936 levels even in the case of a corrective recovery.
Note: The EURUSD and USDCHF had a near-perfect negative correlation of -1.00. This implies that 100% of the time when the EUR/USD rallied, USD/CHF sold off (so the opposite is true). This relationship even holds true over longer periods as the correlation figures remain relatively stable.
As long as 1.3400 resistance holds on a weekly closing basis, the GBPUSD remains in a pullback mode and further down could be seen in GBPUSD to the 1.2908 levels. At this point I”d expect a strong support from the 1.2908 levels where a rebound is very likely, but if this fails to happen, expect the pair to weaken to the 1.2705 levels, further down, support comes at the 1.2514 levels. On the upside, resistance comes at the 1.3400 levels, above that level sees a recovery risk to the 1.3615 levels, a break will restore the upside momentum and pave the way to the 1.3835/1.4011 levels. Conclusion: The GBPUSD continues to face corrective pullback threats below the 1.3615/1.3400 levels…
The USDJPY maintained a bullish momentum last week, topped at 113.25 levels and bottomed at the 111.47 levels. This development leaves the pair targeting the 115.19 levels, a halt is likely and a reversal may occur (if seen support comes at the 113.25 levels) but if this fails to occur, expect the pair to jump to the 117.03 levels, further upside, resistance stands at the 119.19 levels ahead of the 121.50 levels.
A weekly closing or – sustained breakout on a daily basis – above 113.25 will pave the way to 115.19 levels, If this fails to occur, the pair will test 111.47 before another rising…
On the downside, a failure to hold above the 113.25 levels on a weekly closing basis could mean a return to the 111.47 levels, if seen buyers should return here and push to the upside again, however; if this fails to occur, the pair will dip to the 106.95 levels where another rise is likely, below that level sees a fall risk to the 104.04 levels ahead of the 101.18 levels.
Conclusion: The USDJPY continues to face upside threats above the 111.47 levels with risk to the 115.19 levels, below 111.47 sees a pullback threats to the 106.95 levels before another rise…
For fundamental forecast, stay tuned for our weekly outlook, anyway, you can take a quick look at the most important news that will affect major currencies next week: Live Economic Calendar