EURUSD: Capped By A Falling Trendline Ahead Of Draghi Speaks!
With EURUSD breaking above 1.1792 levels yesterday, the outlook has turned neutral at the moment with possible to break lower. Immediate support comes at the 1.1738 levels, stability above this level on a daily closing basis will keep the recovery mode intact but recovery above 1.1738 should be limited by 1.1861 resistance (static resistance). Above that level will challenge the 1.1936 levels, further upside resistance stands at the 1.2005 levels ahead of the 1.2059 levels(main).
On the downside, immediate support comes at the 1.1738 levels, below that level will aim the 1.1670 levels, below 1.1670 will confirm that fall from 1.2091 is resuming and pave the way to the 1.15555 levels (weekly chart target), a halt is likely but a cut will aim the 1.1478 levels.
Conclusion: The EURUSD continues to face recovery threats above the 1.1738 levels but with caution, a break above 1.1861 is needed to extend the recovery for further upside, below 1.1738 will turn the focus back on the 1.1670 levels.
A dovish tone is expected by ECB
Today the focus will be on ECB latest monetary policy decision, no change is expected in rate decision, but eyes will be on the press conference with President Mario Draghi. However, the central bank is still concerned about low inflation but the focus will be on how the central bank plans to taper its massive economic stimulus program. Anyway: A dovish tone is expected by the ECB today. The ECB’s policy decision is due at 1145 GMT and ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference is scheduled for 1230 GMT.
On the 4 hour-chart, the pair is bullish above 1.1815 ahead of 1.1775 (main), below 1.1775 will aim the 1.1744 levels( last support. further down may expose the 1.1670 levels. On the upside above 1.1775/1.1815 may challenge 1.1842/1.1857 levels, next resistance comes at the 1.1880 levels.
GBPUSD: Consolidates With Downside Bias!
As long as 1.3270 resistance holds on a daily closing basis, the GBPUSD remains neutral with risk to the downside. Immediate support comes at the 1.3130 levels, a sustained breakout -daily closing – below that level will get the pair out of current range and aim the 1.3041 levels, further down support comes at the 1.2908 levels.
The GBPUSD will have to break and hold above the 1.3270 levels on a daily closing basis to prevent a return to the downside, a failure to hold above the 1.3270 levels could mean a return to the 1.3130 levels.
On the upside, resistance comes at the 1.3270 levels above 1.3270 will extend the recovery from the 1.3026 levels to the 1.3350/1.3442 levels, a halt is likely and it may turn lower from here, but a break will aim the 1.3615 levels.
Conclusion: The GBPUSD continues to face downside threats below the 1.3270 levels with caution. Above 1.3270 will extend the recovery to the 1.3350 levels ahead of the 1.3442 levels.
Today the focus will be on U.S initial jobless claims and pending home sales.but before that:
A dovish tone by the ECB may take GBPUSD down, keep that in mind…
As long as 113.24 support holds on a daily closing basis, the USDJPY remains on the upside to the 113.95 levels, a halt is likely but a break would open 115.00 levels, further upside will aim the 116.33 levels.
On the downside, below 113.24 will open the main support level at 112.51 where another rise is very likely…below that level will aim the 111.77/111.33 levels…
Conclusion: The USDJPY sees upside move above the 112.51/113.23 levels.
Note: late tonight, Japan’s inflation data is likely to bring a buying opportunity for USDJPY…