Short term outlook in GBPUSD remains on the upside as long as 1.4680/1.4811 support holds on a daily closing basis , resistance comes at the 1.5009 levels , a halt is likely but a break would open 1.5163 next .At this point I’d expect strong resistance from the 1.5163 levels to limit rise from the 1.4565 levels and bring fall resumption , however ; sustained breakout above the 1.5163 levels will have large bullish implication towards the 1.5350/1.5550 levels.
On the downside , a failure to hold gains above the 1.5009 levels could mean a return to the 1.4811 levels , a halt is strongly suggested , If 1.4811 fails, next strong support comes at the 1.4680 levels , around this level heavy longs are likely, It’s the last support level , a clear break below this level will terminate the last bullish run and bring a lower leg below the 1.4565 levels.
In all , the GBPUSD is likely to consolidate within (1.4680/1.4811) / (1.5009/1.5163) range, , above the 1.5163 levels will pave the way towards the 1.5350/1.5550 levels , below 1.4680 will open the 1.4350/1.4200 levels..
Support and resistance : 1.4000, 1.4085 , 1.4190, 1.4350 , 1.4586 , 1.4680 , 1.4811 , 1.5009 , 1.5162 , 1.5351 , 1.5428 , 1.5551
Short term trend : Upward (above 1.4680/1.4811).
Medium / long term trend : Downward (below 1.5009/1.5163)..
Key data (events) which may affect GBPUSD pair this week :
1.Bank Of England MPC meeting minutes. Wednesday at 08:30
2.US Existing Home Sales (Mar). Wednesday at 14:00
3.UK Retail Sales (M.M) .Thursday at 08:30
4.US Initial Jobless Claims .Thursday a 12:30
5.US New Home Sales (Mar) .Thursday at 14:00
6.US Core Durable Goods Orders (M.M) (Mar). Friday at 12:30
*All times are GMT
Conclusion :sideways moves within 1.4680/1.5163 range is likely this week , keep an eye on news near 1.4680, 1.4811 , 1.5009 , 1.5163 levels. weekly chart points down while daily chart points up ………volatility is expected near main support and resistance levels…