Outlook in GBPUSD remains on the downside as long as 1.4683 resistance holds on a daily closing basis , support comes at the 1.4586 levels ahead of the 1.4480 levels , a halt is likely but a cut would open 1.4350 next , further down will pave the way towards the 1.4190/1.4085 levels ..
On the upside , resistance comes at the 1.4683 levels , sustained breakout -daily closing-above the 1.4683 levels will turn outlook neutral and open the 1.4885/1.5009 levels before the next fall , however ; a clear break above the 1.5009 levels will extend recovery towards the 1.5162 levels before the next fall..
In all , as long as 1.4683 resistance holds on a daily closing basis , outlook in GBPUSD remains on the downside towards 1.4480 levels ahead of the 1.4350/1.4190 levels , above the 1.4683 levels faces a pullback risk towards 1.4885/1.5009 levels before the next fall..
Support and resistance : 1.4000, 1.4085 , 1.4190, 1.4350 , 1.4586 , 1.4683 (main), 1.4980 , 1.5009 (main) , 1.5162 , 1.5351 , 1.5428 , 1.5551
Short term trend : Downward (below 1.4683)..
Medium / long term trend : Downward (below 1.4980)..
Key data (events) which may affect GBPUSD pair this week :
1.UK CPI (YoY) (Mar).Tuesday at 08:30.
2.US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar). Tuesday at 12;30
3.US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar). Tuesday at 12:30
4.US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr). Wednesday at 12:30
5.US Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar). Wednesday At 12:30
6.US Building Permits (Mar) .Thursday at 12:30
7. US Housing Starts (Mar) .Thursday at 12:30
8.US Initial Jobless Claims. Thursday at 12:30
9.US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr). Thursday at 14:00
10.UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Feb) .Friday at 08:30
11.UK Claimant Count Change (Mar).Friday at 08:30
12.US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar). Friday at 12:30
13.US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr).Friday at 14:00
* All times are GMT…
Conclusion : Medium and short term trend are down , further down is likely this week , any rise supported by fundamental data should be taken as an opportunity to short at rebound , anyway , watch out for news near support and resistance levels (News may have strong impact on the pair near support and resistance levels).
Watch Out: a clear break above the 1.4683 levels could test the psycho level 1.5000 before the next fall !!!! remember EURGBP is under heavy pressure , I guess you get what I mean ?!!!!
