GBPUSD – Weekly Forecast 30 Dec-03 Jan

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Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.6321 with 1.6550 & 1.6620 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.6321 will open 1.6250/1.6214 levels.
Description: The GBPUSD jumped last week to 1.5677 levels , Initial bias is on the upside this week and further rise is likely towards 1.6618 levels , break of 1.6618 will open 1.6745 next.On the downside , minor support comes at 1.6321 , below 1.6321 will turn bias neutral and bring  consolidations, but out look will remain bullish as long as 1.6214 support holds.

Support and resistance levels : 1.6070, 1.6133 , 1.6214 , 1.6321 (Pivot) ,1.6400, 1.6520 , 1.6620 , 1.6750

Key data/events which may influence GBPUSD  this week:

  1. US – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) – Monday  15:00 GMT – The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.Pending Home Sales has been falling the past few months , the last read was -0.6% ,this month is expected to rise to 1.0%.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  2. US – CB Consumer Confidence – Tuesday 15:00 GMT – Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. . CB Consumer Confidence has been falling the past few months , the last read was -70.4  ,this month is expected to gain to 76.0  . note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  3. UK – Manufacturing PMI – Thursday 09:28 GMT – The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50  is bullish for the GBP, whereas a reading below 50 is seen as bearish . Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. This indicator has been rising for almost a year , but it was stooped by 56.0 levels the past 2 months , the last read was 58.4 , this month is expected to make a slight decline towards 58.0 .However ;  A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
  4. US – Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday   13:30 GMT –  Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.Initial claims was declined to 338 K  last week , this week is expected to continue falling towards 334 K . Note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  5. US –  ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) –  Thursday 15:00 GMT – The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50  is bullish , whereas a reading  below 50 is seen as bearish. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.This indicator continued to rise since last April , last month was 57.3, this month is expected to make a slight decline towards 57.0.Note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  6. UK – Construction PMI – Friday 09:30 GMT – The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Construction Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the construction industry. A reading above 50  is bullish , whereas a reading  below 50 is seen as bearish. It gives an indication about the health of the construction section in the UK. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. This  indicator has been rising for almost a year , last month was 62.6 , this month is expected to make a slight slide towards 62.0 . note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

All times are GMT

MARKET DATA

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS