GBPUSD – Weekly Forecast 29 Jul – 02 Aug 2013

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The GBPUSD rose as suggested last week. Topped at 1.5434 levels. So…on the daily chart. The pair has lost some of the upside momenta after bottoming at 1.5288 levels. However; since the pair failed to close below 1.5288. It pulled-back towards the key resistance 1.5390. Now the pressure will be on the key resistance 1.5390. Stability above the 1.5390 levels on a daily closing basis will pave the way towards 1.5465 ahead of 1.5515 levels. Above 1.5515 will have large bullish implication towards 1.5750 levels.

On the downside, support is 1.5288 levels. Losing this level on a daily closing basis will confirm short term topping and should pave the way towards 1.5128. But the downside below 1.5288 should be contained well above 1.5128 and bring rebound to the upside. Below 1.5128 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4813 levels.

Support and resistance levels : 1.4813 , 1.5026, 1.5128 , 1.5288 , 1.5465, 1.5515, 1.5605, 1.5750

Trend Status: daily close

Bullish: above  1.5288

Neutral: 1.5128, 1.5288

Bearish: below 1.5128

In the medium / long term view, a short-term bottom has been placed at 1.4813 levels, break of 1.5750 will suggest that fall from 1.6380 is finished at 1.4813, and rise from 1.4813 should extend towards / beyond 1.6380 levels, losing 1.4800 levels will suggest that fall from 1.6380 is resuming, and the pair should extend its weakness towards 1.4000/1.4200 levels.

blankblankHere are the most important events for GBPUSD pair next week :

Monday 29 July 

– US Pending Home Sales:  at 14:00.

It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect.

Tuesday 30 July 

– US CB Consumer Confidence:  at 14:00

It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in the overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

Wednesday 31 July 

– US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: at  12:15

Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity

– US Advance GDP: at 12:30

It’s the most important measurement of economic activity and the primary measurement of the economy’s health.

– FOMC Statement: at 18:00

It discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

Thursday 01 Aug

GBP Manufacturing PMI at 08:30

It’s a leading indicator of economic health.

GBP Asset Purchase Facility at 11:00

It increases demand for bonds which tends to lower long-term interest rates.

GBP Interest Rates at 11:00

Short-term interest rates are the main factor in currency valuation.

–  GBP MPC Rate Statement – all day

It’s among the primary tools the MPC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes on interest rates

– US Unemployment Claims: at 12:30

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, this is the earliest U.S. Economic data. But the market impact varies from week to week.

– US ISM Manufacturing PMI: at 14:00

It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions,

Friday 02 Aug 

  GBP Construction PMI  at 08:30

It’s a leading indicator of economic health.

– US Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:30.

Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

– Unemployment rate:  at 12:30.

The number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

All times  are GMT

MARKET DATA

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS