GBPUSD – Weekly Forecast 05-09 Aug 2013


The GBPUSD maintained a bullish momentum last Friday, topped at  1.5307 levels, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.5307, the GBPUSD will have to hold above the 1.5307 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further upside gains , If seen, it will target the 1.5355 levels where a breach will turn the focus on the 1.5477 ahead of 1.5530, at this point this level 1.5477/1.5530 is likely to contain  any upside move and most likely we might  see resumption of the whole fall from 1.5750 levels, but break of 1.5530 will have large bullish implication towards/beyond 1.5750 levels, next resistance is 1.5803 ahead of 1.5877 levels.

On the downside , a failure to hold above the 1.5307 levels, could mean a return to the 1.5101 levels, losing this level will extend losses towards 1.5045 levels, note that 1.5000/1.5045 levels are supposed to contain any downside move below 1.5100, losing 1.5000 levels will flip bias back to the downside towards the 1.4800 levels.

Note that last week I said in my weekly forecast, that downside  below 1.5288 should be contained well above 1.5128, last week we had one false break below 1.5128, the next day the pair flew almost 200 pips, rejection from 1.5128 was confirmed by %R Williams bullish divergence on the daily chart and Non-Farm Payrolls.

Support and resistance levels 1.4800 , 1.5000, 1.5045, 1.5100, 1.5241, 1.5307, 1.5355 , 1.5477, 1.5530, 1.5600,1.5750

Trend Status : daily close

Very Bullish : above 1.5530

Bullish : above 1.5355

Neutral : above 1.5000

Bearish : below 1.5000


In the long term picture, the situation is mixed a little bit, fall from 1.5750 is unclear yet whether it’s the second leg of 1.6380 levels, or it’s a part of new   wave of rising from 1.4800 levels, note that stability above the 1.5750 levels on a weekly closing basis will suggest that fall from 1.6380 is over at 1.4800 levels, and rise from 1.4800 will extend its gains towards/ beyond 1.6380 levels, but in return losing 1.4800 levels will suggest that rise from 1.4800 is over at 1.5750 and fall from 1.5750 is treated as second leg of 1.6380 fall , and the pair will extend its weakness towards 1.4400 ahead of 1.4000 levels.

Live Chart of GBPUSD