GBPUSD – Monthly Forecast Nov 2013


Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.6252 with 1.5893 & 1.5528 as next target.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.6252 will open 1.6700/1.7000 levels.
Description:The GBPUSD has been trading below the 1.6252 levels for almost 2 years, this level served as strong resistance in medium term , stability below this level on a monthly basis will keep the pair under pressure with risk towards 1.5893 levels, losing this level will turn focus on the 1.5528 levels, a halt is strongly suggested and we might see reversal towards 1.6252 levels, but If 1.5528 fails, expect the market to weaken further towards the 1.4813 levels.On the upside , sustained break above the 1.6252 levels is needed to open 1.6700/1.7000 levels otherwise the risk will remain to the downside in the medium term.

In the long term picture, the clear break above 1.6070 – Feb 2010 high – printed support at the 1.4228 levels , so as long as 1.4228 holds , the pair is heading towards the 1.7000 ahead of 1.8000 levels , 1.4228/1.4813 are supposed to provide strong demand in the long term , only losing the 1.4228 will invalid the bullish view and it will have large bearish implication towards 1.3500 levels and possible lower !