GBPUSD – Medium/short term analysis 15 Jul 2013

Pound dollar 9865315asdfg.jpg

The GBPUSD rebounded strongly last week from 1.4813 levels, topped at 1.5221 levels, resistance is at 1.5304 levels ahead of 1.5465, so as long as those levels hold, the pair will return to its downside basis with risk towards/below 1.4813, a break below 1.4813 will target 1.4700 ahead of 1.4500 levels.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.5465 will confirm short term bottoming at 1.4813 and flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5750 levels.

On the weekly chart, according to %R, Williams, we have bullish divergence , support is at 1.4813, so as long as this level holds the pair is likely to try higher towards 1.5750 but also we have strong resistance at 1.5750 levels, so sideways move is strongly suggested between 1.4813/1.5750 with bearish bias, to completely reverse risks to the upside, the pair needs to hold above the 1.5750 levels on a weekly closing basis, If seen it will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6380 levels..

On the downside, a weekly close below 1.4813 will pave the way towards 1.4400 ahead of 1.3900 levels…

On the monthly chart, after breaking below 1.5267 low of Jun 2012, the pair became in extended bullish divergence, resistance is at 1.5776 high of Jun 2012, this level was already rejected last month Jun 2013 at 1.5750, a monthly close below 1.5164 low of Jun 2013 sooner or later will target 1.4400 levels ahead of 1.3900 levels.

On the upside, stability above 1.5776 on a monthly closing basis will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6400/700 levels.

In all, as long as 1.5776/750 holds, the pair will remain under pressure with risk towards 1.4400 levels, I think once this consolidation is over the pair will target 1.4400/1.4000 levels.

Note: I think 1.5304/1.5465 will contain rise from 1.4813 and bring a resumption of whole fall.








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