If you back to my weekly forecast, I’ve said the pair needs to break above the 1.5355 levels, note that the pair was rejected the past 2 days from 1.5355 levels on the daily chart, anyway today focus is on Carney and Bank Of England’s inflation report at 09:30 am GMT , this report includes the BOE’s projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years. The BOE Governor also holds a press conference to discuss the report’s contents upon release; It provides valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation – the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions, a high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the GBP.
Technically, the pair has failed 2 times to overcome the 1.5355 levels, It was rejected with small pin bar candle, added to that, rise from 1.4813/1.5266 levels has reached the first assumed target around 1.5400 levels, next target is around 1.5540 levels, but to reach that level the pair needs to overcome 1.5355 first.
Anyway, the road is not paved to the downside, we have support at 1.5307 then 1.5242 ahead of 1.5100, on the upside, break of 1.5355 sooner or later will pave the way towards 1.5470 ahead of 1.5530 levels, in-case the pair manage to reach that level, short only after rejection on daily, break of 1.5530 will have large bullish implication towards 1.5750 levels, that’s on the daily chart !
However, once the report is released, the pair is likely to dip towards 1.5307 levels before flying towards 1.5470 levels, the second option, it might spike above 1.5355 levels before falling below 1.5307 levels. anyway, this is how to deal with such a situation:
We need to focus on the 4-hour chart (GMT+1) on the 1.5363 levels, break of this level is likely to have a larger bullish implication, If seen eyes will be on the 1.5435 where a breach will turn the focus on the 1.5480 ahead of 1.5530 levels.
On the downside, a rejection from 1.5363 levels is likely to attack the 1.5240 ahead of 1.5175 levels. In all as long as 1.5363 holds on a 4-hour closing basis, the pair will remain biased to the downside with risk towards the 1.5175 levels, break of 1.5363 will reverse risks to the upside towards 1.5477 levels.