GBPUSD Forecast Feb 10-14

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Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.6445 with 1.6335 & 1.6270 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.6445 will open 1.6480/1.6625 levels

Description: Outlook in GBPUSD is neutral this week, resistance is at 1.6445 levels, break of this level will suggest short-term bottoming and look for the 1.6480 levels, we might see hesitation around this area , but sustained trading above the 1.6480 levels, sooner or later will recapture the 1.6670 levels, further out will aim the 1.6745 levels. on the downside, stability below the 1.6445 levels on a daily basis could mean a return to the 1.6290 levels, losing this level on a daily basis might expose 1.6260 and open 1.6215 levels.

Support & Resistance :1.6130 , 1.6170,1.6215 , 1.6260 , 1.6290 ,1.6440(Pivot) , 1.6480 , 1.6625 , 1.6670 , 1.6745, 1.6875

Key data/events which may influence GBPUSD this week:
  • U.S Fed’s Yellen Speech, Tuesday at 15:00 GMT. Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC. Market Impact: A hawkish outlook is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish)for the USD.
  • Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (Q4). Wednesday at 10.30 GMT. A quarterly report released by (BOE), It provides valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation, this report will give a clear clue about the future of monetary policy and interest rate decisions, also it includes the BOE’s projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years. The BOE Governor also holds a press conference to discuss the report’s contents upon release. Market Impact: A high reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a low reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
  • BOE Gov Carney Speaks, Wednesday at 10:30 GMT. He will hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London.Market Impact: A hawkish outlook is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish)for the GBP.
  • U.S Core Retail Sales (MoM).  Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy. Last read 0.7% ,Forecast 0.1% . Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  • U.S Initial Jobless Claims. Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Last read 331K, Forecast 330K. Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  • U.S Retail Sales (MoM). Thursday at 13:30. Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.Last read 0.2% ,Forecast 0.3% . Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  • U.S Fed’s Yellen Speech. Thursday at 15:00 GMT. He will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. Market Impact: A hawkish outlook is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish)for the USD.
  • U.S Michigan Consumer Sentiment.Friday at 14: 55. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers. Last read 81.2, Forecast 80.7. Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

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GBPUSD Daily Chart

GBPUSD Forecast Feb 10-14

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