GBPUSD Daily Forecast Oct 05 2018

GBPUSD: Recovers With Caution, Tests Key Resistance 1.3072…

As long as 1.2933/1.3000 support holds on a daily closing basis, the GBPUSD remains in a recovery mode and further upside couldn’t be ruled out, but the upside move above 1.2933 should be contained by the 1.3072 levels, If 1.3072 fails, the corrective recovery will be extended to the 1.3178 levels (main), above 1.3178 will aim the 1.3268 levels.

Hint: A daily closing above 1.3040 will increase the risk for 1.3178 ( may expose 1.3072), a failure to hold above 1.3040 levels on a daily closing basis could mean a return to the 1.2933 levels.

On the downside, support is seen around 1.3000 levels, a sustained breakout below 1.3000 would challenge 1.2933 levels, a cut through support will restore the downside momentum and aim the 1.2845 levels, further down, support comes at the 1.2785 levels.

Conclusion: The GBPUSD faces recovery risk above 1.2933 levels with caution!

Support: 1.3000, 1.2933, 1.2845, 1.2785, 1.2710

Resistance: 1.3040, 1.3072, 13178, 1.3268, 1.3362

Key data/events which may affect GBPUSD today:

The United States will publish 2 reports on the status of jobs over the past month, excluding the farming industry today at 12:30 GMT.

1- Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep), market analysts expect a fall to 185K, from 201K a month earlier, note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

2- Unemployment Rate (Sep), market analysts expect a fall to 3.8%, from 3.9% in the preceding month. Note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

How both reports will affect EURUSD today?!

we have 3 scenarios:

Scenario # 1: If both reports are positive, the USD will rise, How this scenario will affect the market?!!

The GBPUSD will fall to 1.2933 levels, If 1.2933 fails to hold, a further decline will be seen to the 1.2845 levels. Expected range: (1.2845:1.3072).

Scenario # 2: If both reports are negative, the USD will fall, How this scenario will affect the market?!!

The pair will challenge 1.3072 levels, a breach couldn’t be ruled out if seen, it will aim the 1.3178 levels. Expected range: (1.3000:1.3178).

Scenario # 3: One report is positive and the other is negative?!! The USD will consolidate with an upside bias, mostly the market won’t make a big move.

Expected range:(1.2933:1.3072)…

You can follow U.S jobs report in real time from here:

Live Economic Calendar

 

MARKET DATA

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS