The US dollar continued suffering last week , U.S data was bad than expected . Next week focus will be on FOMC statement , without change of Fed’s policy this month – since the Fed hinted before that the first rate hike could come in June , the US dollar is likely to continue suffering .
Technically , the US dollar index ( which measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK ) is under pressure and further down couldn’t be ruled out as long as trades below 98.62 levels .
From Euro-Zone , situations in Greece or Greece with its creditors , I think we have 2 scenarios :
1- Disagreement (most likely) ,If seen , as I see that would be an opportunity to buy EURUSD on dips !!!
2. Agree on some points , If seen , the pair will fluctuate with risk to break higher ………
I think we have third option , but don’t mention it since I think It’s unlikely , full agreement !!! If seen , sure it will support the EURO !!!!
The Idea , the EURUSD is far away of a big reversal , still early a bit , so any negative data for EURUSD , Can be an opportunity to buy the EURUSD on dips , unless the Fed comes out with a surprise , the USD remains under pressure …
Same Scenario for GBPUSD , I think the pound is the strongest currency against the US dollar , strategy remains buying on dips !!!
USDJPY consolidates with downside bias , focus will be on BOJ Press Conference next Thursdays , anyway , let’s highlight the most critical events which affect currency market next week :
Monday Apr 27 :
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Gov Stevens Speaks at 22:40
Tuesday Apr 28 :
- GfK German Consumer Climate (May) at 06:00
- UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (QoQ) (Q1) at 08:30
- BOC Gov Poloz Speaks..at 12:45
- US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) at 14:00
- NZD Trade Balance at 22:45
Wednesday Apr 29:
- Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) Business Confidence at 01:00
- German Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) (Apr) at 12:00
- US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (QoQ) (Q1) at 12:30
- US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) at 14:00
- US Crude Oil Inventories at 14:30
- F.O.M.C statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision at 18:00
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision at 21:00
Thursday Apr 30 :
- Monetary Policy Statement + BOJ Press Conference at 05:00
- German Unemployment Change (Apr) at 07:55
- Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (Apr) at 09:00
- CAD GDP (MoM) (Feb) at 12:30
- US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30
- US Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar) at 12:30
- US Chicago PMI (Apr) at 13:45
- BOC Gov Poloz Speaks at 14:30
- JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) at 23:30
Friday May 01
- Friday is holiday in France ,China , Italy , Spain , Switzerland and Germany ( Labour Day).
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Apr) at 01:00
- AUD Producer Price Index (PPI) (QoQ) (Q1) at 01:30
- UK Manufacturing PMI (Apr) at 08:30
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00
*All Times Are GMT
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