Forex Weekly Forecast Apr 27 2015

forex11 eb5qij min
forex11 eb5qij min

The US dollar continued suffering last week , U.S data was bad than expected . Next week focus will be on FOMC statement , without change of Fed’s policy this month – since the Fed hinted before that the first rate hike could come in June , the US dollar is likely to continue suffering .

Technically , the US dollar index ( which measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK ) is under pressure and further down couldn’t be ruled out as long as trades below 98.62 levels .

From Euro-Zone , situations in Greece or Greece with its creditors , I think we have 2 scenarios :

1- Disagreement (most likely) ,If seen , as I see that would be an opportunity to buy EURUSD on dips !!!

2. Agree on some points , If seen , the pair will fluctuate with risk to break higher ………

I think we have third option , but don’t  mention it since I think It’s unlikely  , full agreement !!! If seen , sure it will support the EURO !!!!

The Idea , the EURUSD is far away of a big reversal , still early a bit , so any negative data for EURUSD , Can be an opportunity to buy the EURUSD on dips , unless the Fed comes out with a surprise , the USD remains under pressure …

Same Scenario for GBPUSD , I think the pound is the strongest currency against the US dollar , strategy remains buying on dips !!!

USDJPY consolidates with downside bias , focus will be on BOJ Press Conference  next Thursdays , anyway , let’s highlight the most critical events which affect currency market next week :

Monday Apr 27 :

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Gov Stevens Speaks at 22:40

Tuesday Apr 28 :

  • GfK German Consumer Climate (May) at 06:00
  • UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (QoQ) (Q1) at 08:30
  • BOC Gov Poloz Speaks..at 12:45
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) at 14:00
  • NZD Trade Balance at 22:45

Wednesday Apr 29:

  • Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) Business Confidence at 01:00
  • German Consumer Price Index (CPI)  (MoM) (Apr) at 12:00
  • US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (QoQ) (Q1) at 12:30
  • US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) at 14:00
  • US Crude Oil Inventories at 14:30
  • F.O.M.C statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision  at 18:00
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision at 21:00

Thursday Apr 30 :

  • Monetary Policy Statement + BOJ Press Conference at 05:00
  • German Unemployment Change (Apr) at 07:55
  • Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (Apr) at 09:00
  • CAD GDP (MoM) (Feb) at 12:30
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30
  • US Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar) at 12:30
  • US Chicago PMI (Apr) at 13:45
  • BOC Gov Poloz Speaks at 14:30
  • JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) at 23:30

Friday May 01

  • Friday is holiday in France ,China , Italy , Spain , Switzerland and Germany ( Labour Day).
  • Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Apr) at 01:00
  • AUD Producer Price Index (PPI) (QoQ) (Q1) at 01:30
  • UK Manufacturing PMI (Apr) at 08:30
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00

*All Times Are GMT

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