EURUSD Weekly Forecast Nov 10 2014

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Outlook in EURUSD remains on the downside as long as resistance 1.2613 holds on a weekly closing basis , support comes at the 1.2389 levels , losing this level would open 1.2300/1.2127 next , further downside will aim the 1.2042 levels .

On the upside , resistance comes at the 1.2613 levels , stability below this level will keep the pair very bearish , however ; sustained trading – weekly closing – above the 1.2613 levels will turn outlook neutral and bring recovery , but recovery move above the 1.2613 levels should be limited by the 1.2750/1.2886 levels  where fall resumption is likely.

In all , as long as resistance 1.2613 holds on a weekly closing basis , the EURUSD remains under heavy pressure , targeting the 1.2389/1.2127 levels ahead of the 1.2042 levels. a clear break above the 1.2613 levels will  bring limited gains below the 1.2886 levels.

Let’s take a quick look at key events which may influence EURUSD pair next week : 

  • EURO zone Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) , Wednesday at 10:00 . Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.Last read was -1.8% , Forecast is 1.0% . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
  • German CPI (MoM) (Oct) , Thursday at 07:00 .The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Last read was – 0.3% , Forecast is -0.2% . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims , Thursday at 13:30 .Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Last read was 278K , Forecast is 280K . Market Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  • German GDP (Q/Q) (Q3) , Friday at 07:00 .Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole. Last read was -0.2% , Forecast is 0.1% . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
  • EURO zone CPI (YoY) (Oct) , Friday at 10:00 .The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. Last read was 0.4% , Forecast is 0.3% . Market Impact : A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
  • US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) , Friday at 13:30 .Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Last read was -0.3% , Forecast is 0.2% . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) , Friday at 14:55 .The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.Last read was 86.9 , Forecast is 87.5 . Market Impact:A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

*All times are GMT

Conclusion : watch out for news near those levels 1.2389 and 1.2613 . negative  data below 1.2389 will accelerate the expected bearish move  . In all , because of the lack of news this week , the EURUSD may enjoy the recovery a little bit , low volatility is likely this week !

EURUSD Weekly Forecast Nov 10 2014

MARKET DATA

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS