Last week, the EURUSD broke below the psycho level 1.2500, topped at the 1.2770 levels, bottomed at the 1.2485 levels and closed at the 1.2516 levels.This week focus will be on (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (Nov), Monetary policy statement and press conference. Things are expected to remain the same with no critical changes, however, any surprise by the ECB should only bring limited gains ( an opportunity to short at resistance levels).let’s take a quick look the most critical data first :
Monday, Nov 03 2014
- From EURO zone, German Manufacturing PMI (Oct).
- United States will release data on ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct).
Tuesday, Nov 04 2014
- United State will release data on Trade Balance (Sep).
Wednesday, Nov 05 2014
- From EURO zone, Germany will release a report on German Services PMI (Oct).
- USA will end the day with its report on ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct), later on, the day another data will be released on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct).
Thursday, Nov 06 2014
- From EUROzone (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (Nov), 45 min later, ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference.
- The US will release its weekly report on Initial Jobless Claims.
Friday, Nov 07 2014
- The United States will release a report on Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) and Unemployment Rate (Oct).
Events will be discussed during the week …..
Technical Outlook :
- Weekly Chart
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum last week, printed resistance at the 1.2770/1.2886 levels.This development leaves the pair targeting the 1.2375 levels, a halt is likely, but losing the 1.2375 levels will turn the focus on the 1.2240 levels, a cut will call for a fall towards the 1.2085 levels.
On the upside, resistance comes at the 1.2613 levels, stability below this level will keep the pair under strong pressure, however; a clear break above the 1.2613 levels will turn outlook neutral and bring consolidation, but consolidation above the 1.2613 levels should be limited by the 1.2770/1.2886 levels.
In all, as long as resistance 1.2613 holds on a weekly closing basis, outlook in EURUSD remains on the downside towards the 1.2375 levels ahead of the 1.2240 levels, sustained trading above the 1.2613 levels will bring rebound towards the 1.2770/1.2886 levels before the next fall.
Note that stability below 1.2485 levels on a weekly basis, will turn 1.2485 to a strong resistance level, If seen, focus will be on the 1.2085 levels the upcoming weeks.
- Daily Chart
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum last Friday, printed resistance on the 1.2616/1.2638 levels.This development leaves the pair targeting the 1.2375 levels, a halt is likely, but losing the 1.2375 level would open 1.2240 next, further downside will aim the 1.2085 levels.
On the upside, resistance comes at the 1.2616 levels, break of the 1.2616/1.2638 levels will put the pair in recovery mode, but recovery above the 1.2616/1.2638 levels should be limited by the 1.2770/1.2886 levels.
In all, as long as resistance 1.2616/1.2638 holds on a daily closing basis, outlook in EURUSD remains on the downside towards the 1.2375 levels ahead of the 1.2240 levels, above the 1.2616/1.2638 levels, It faces a recovery risk towards the 1.2770/1.2886 levels.
Weekly resistance comes at the 1.2613 levels, daily chart resistance comes at the 1.2616/1.2638 levels, as a result we have strong supply zone at the 1.2616/1.2638 levels, so any rebound should be limited by this level, watch out for news near this level, negative data should bring a big decline ?!!