Short term outlook in EURUSD remains neutral with risk to the upside as long as 1.0706 support holds on a daily closing basis , stability above the 1.0706 levels mains the pair is in recovery mode . At this point I’d expect strong resistance from the 1.0886/1.1036 levels to limit rise from the 1.0461 levels and bring fall resumption , however , a clear break above the 1.1036 levels will suggest bottoming in mid-term outlook and open the 1.1182 levels …
On the downside , main support comes at the 1.0706 levels , sustained breakout below the 1.0706 levels will restore the downside momentum and open the 1.0618 levels ahead of the 1.0530/1.0461 levels.
In all , as long as 1.0706 support holds on a daily closing basis , the EURUSD remains in recovery mode and further upside couldn’t be ruled out , but upside above the 1.0706 levels should limited strongly by the 1.0886/1.1036 levels, below 1.0706 levels will restore the downside momentum and open the 1.0618 levels ahead of the 1.0530/1.0461 levels.
Support and resistance : 0.9970 , 1.0100 , 1.0277 , 1.0460 , 1.0530 , 1.0618 , 1.0706 (main) , 1.0886 , 1.1035 (main) , 1.1182 , 1.1379…….
Short term trend : Sideways/bullish (above 1.0706 ).
Long / medium term trend : Downward (below 1.1035/1.0886).
Key data (events) which may affect EURUSD pair this week :
1.German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr) . Tuesday at 09:00
2.US Existing Home Sales (Mar). Wednesday at 14:00
3.French Manufacturing PMI . Thursday at 07:00
4.German Manufacturing PMI . Thursday at 07:30
5.US Initial Jobless Claims .Thursday a 12:30
6.US New Home Sales (Mar) .Thursday at 14:00
7.Euro-group Meetings.Friday : All day.
8.German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr) .Friday at 08:00
9.US Core Durable Goods Orders (M.M) (Mar). Friday at 12:30
*All times are GMT
Conclusion : In medium term forecast , the pair is in overbought zone (1.0886/1.1035) , negative data for EURUSD is likely to bring strong reversal from this level , positive data will challenge this level .In all , keep an eye on news near 1.0461 , 1.0706 , 1.0886 , 1.1036 levels..