Outlook in EURUSD has turned to the downside , resistance comes at the 1.0762 levels , stability below this level on a daily closing basis will keep the pair under heavy pressure , support comes at the 1.0567 levels , losing this level on a daily closing basis will open 1.0440 , a halt is likely but a cut will target 1.0277 next , further down will pave the way towards the 1.0100/0.9770 levels.
On the upside , a failure to hold below the 1.0567 levels on a daily closing basis could mean a return to the 1.0637/1.0762 levels before the next fall, however ; sustained breakout – daily closing- above the 1.0762 levels will turn outlook neutral and bring limited gains towards the 1.0886/1.1035 levels before the next fall..
In all , as long as 1.0762 resistance holds on a daily closing basis , outlook in EURUSD remains on the downside towards the 1.0440 levels ahead of the 1.0277/1.0100 levels, above the 1.0762 levels faces a recovery risk towards the 1.0886/1.1035 levels before the next fall..
Support and resistance : 0.9970 , 1.0100 , 1.0277 , 1.0440 , 1.0567 , 1.0637 , 1.0762 (main) , 1.0886 , 1.1035 (main) , 1.1182 (main) , 1.1379…….
Short term trend : Downward (below 1.0762 ).
Long / medium term trend : Downward (below 1.1035).
Key data (events) which may affect EURUSD pair this week :
1.US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar). Tuesday at 12;30
2.US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar). Tuesday at 12:30
3.Euro-Zone Interest Rate Decision (Apr) followed by President Mario Draghi speech . Wednesday at 11:45
4.US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr). Wednesday at 12:30
5.US Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar). Wednesday At 12:30
6.US Building Permits (Mar) .Thursday at 12:30
7. US Housing Starts (Mar) .Thursday at 12:30
8.US Initial Jobless Claims. Thursday at 12:30
9.US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr). Thursday at 14:00
10.Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (Mar) .Friday at 09:00
11.US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar). Friday at 12:30
12.US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr).Friday at 14:00
* All times are GMT…
Conclusion : Medium and short term trend are down , further down is likely this week , any rise supported by fundamental data should be taken as an opportunity to short at rebound , anyway , watch out for news near support and resistance levels (News may have strong impact on the pair near support and resistance levels).