EURUSD – Weekly Forecast 29 Jul – 02 Aug 2013


The rebound from 12755 levels continued last week towards 1.3296 levels. The daily close above 1.3255 levels opens the way towards 1.3330 ahead of 1.3420 levels. Break of 1.3420 will extend gains towards 1.5600 levels, above 1.5600 may expose 1.3710 and target 1.3820 levels.

On the downside. As long as 1.3165 holds on a daily closing basis, rebound from 1.2755 is in progress and is likely to extend higher , below 1.3165 would delay the bullish move for retesting 1.3082, next support is at 1.2992 ahead 1.2922 (main), but downside below 1.3165 should be contained well above 1.2922 and a higher leg may be seen above 1.3420 levels, below 1.2922 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2755 levels.

On the weekly chart, the weekly close above 1.3206 levels is likely to have large bullish implication towards 1.3415 levels, and sudden gain is strongly suggested next week towards 1.3415 and possibly higher towards 1.3710 levels.

Support and resistance levels :  1.2755,1.2992,1.3082,1.3175,1.3255,1.3415,1.3577,1.3710

Trend Status: daily close

Bullish: above 1.3165

Neutral : 1.2922 – 1.3165

Bearish: below 1.2922

In the long term picture , fall from 1.6037 – 2008 high – treated as a consolidation pattern, this consolidation is likely over at 1.1875 -2010 low, resistance is at 1.3617 Jan 2013 high , break of 1.3617 will expose 1.3710 and suggest that rise from 1.2042  is resuming towards 1.4000 levels ahead of 1.4500 levels, below 1.2042 will reverse risks to the downside towards 1.1600 levels ahead of 1.1100 levels.

Here are the most important events for EURUSD pair next week :

Monday 29 July 

– US Pending Home Sales:  at 14:00.

It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect.

Tuesday 30 July 

– US CB Consumer Confidence:  at 14:00

It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in the overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

Wednesday 31 July 

– US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: at  12:15

Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity

– US Advance GDP: at 12:30

It’s the most important measurement of economic activity and the primary measurement of the economy’s health.

– FOMC Statement: at 18:00

It discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

Thursday 01 Aug

Eurozone rate decision: at 11:45

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

– US Unemployment Claims: at 12:30

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, this is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

– US ISM Manufacturing PMI: at 14:00

It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions,

Friday 02 Aug

– US Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:30.

Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

– Unemployment rate:  at 12:30.

The number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

All times  are GMT