The EURUSD maintained some bearish momentum last August , topped at the 1.3451 levels, bottomed at the 1.3172 levels, now pressure will be on the 1.3172 levels, the EURUSD will have to hold below the 1.3172 levels on a monthly closing basis to push the market for further downside losses, If seen,It will target the 1.2754 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.2625 levels, further more will aim the 1.2135 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold below the 1.3172 levels, could mean a return to the 1.3451 levels, If seen a halt is suggested from 1.3451 levels, but a break would reverse risks to the upside towards the 1.3710 levels, a breach would target the 1.3870 levels where a halt is suggested , but a breach would target the 1.4375 levels.
In all,the pair was rejected last month from 1.3283 levels – May 2012 high – so the pair will remain biased to the downside with risk towards the 1.2754/12625 levels as long as trades below the 1.3283 levels, to reverse risks to the upside, the pair needs to break and hold above the 1.3283 levels on a monthly closing basis ,If seen seen , the way towards 1.3870 will be paved, sustained break above 1.3870 sooner or later would target 1.5000 levels…
Conclusion : a consolidation below the 1.3283 levels on monthly is likely to target the 1.2754/625 levels ahead of 1.2135 levels, while a consolidation above 1.3283 on monthly is likely to bring a sudden rise towards 1.3870 levels, a halt is suggested but sustained break above 1.3870 will have large bullish implication towards the 1.5000 levels.
Trend Strength (Monthly Chart):
Bullish : above 1.3870
Neutral : below 1.3870
Bearish : below 1.3283
EURUSD Monthly Chart