EURUSD Monthly Forecast Feb 2015

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The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum in Jan 2015, breaks blow critical support at the 1.1739 levels (Sept 2003 high). This development puts the pair few steps away of the 0.9417/0.8891 levels, but the barrier of reaching the 0.9417/0.8891 levels is now just the minor support level 1.0762, we might see hesitation or rebound, but losing the 1.0762 levels on a monthly closing basis will bring sell-off towards the 0.9417/0.8891 levels…

Note that the key support 1.1739 severed as strong support in 2004, pushed the pair towards the 1.6035 in 2008, later between 2010 and 2012, the area above 1.1739 contained fall from the 1.6035 levels, printed support at the 1.1875 levels and bring consolidation below the 1.6035 levels , but losing the 1.1739 levels recently , suggests that consolidation from the 1.1875 levels is over , and fall from the 1.6035 levels is resuming towards the 0.9417/0.8891 levels..

On the upside , in Feb 2015 , If the pair fails to hold losses below 1.1739 levels and back above the 1.1739 levels, that could ┬ábe taken as a sign of false bearish breakout, in other words, If the pair manage to close back above the 1.1739 levels in Feb 2015, further upside couldn’t be ruled out , 2 or 3 monthly closings above the 1.1739 levels will print support around 1.1096 levels , If seen ; wide consolidation is likely within 1.1000/1.3000 range the upcoming months……

In all , as long as 1.1739 resistance holds on a monthly closing basis , long term outlook in EURUSD remains on the downside towards the 1.0762 levels where a cut will open the 0.9417/0.8891 levels, break of the 1.1739 levels on a monthly closing basis will print support around 1.1096 levels and bring long term consolidation below 1.3000 levels.

Conclusion: we have 3 options :

1- The pair will continue falling towards the 0.9417/0.8891 levels…

2- Any rejection from/ around the key support 1.0762 with a reversal candle (pattern) on monthly time frame is likely to bring rebound towards the 1.1739/1.2000 levels before the next fall towards the 0.9417/0.8891 levels…

3-If the pair manage to back and hold gains above the 1.1739 levels in Feb 2015 and the upcoming months, long term consolidation will be in sight within 1.1000/1.3000 range…

As a result, the next 2 or 3 months will give us a very clear clue about the next destination !!!

EURUSD Monthly Forecast Feb 2015

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