EURUSD: Mid-Term Forecast, Vulnerable To The Downside Below 1.1679 Even In Case Of Recovery !

euro-dollar-594

As shown on the daily chart posted below, the EURUSD pair has lost its upside momentum, a short term top has been confirmed at the 1.1466 levels, so ..What would happen next !!! What options do we have !!!

First of all, the pair has put a new top at the 1.1466 levels , what is that supposed to mean ?!!!

1- Rise from 1.0461 has over at the 1.1466 levels and the pair is ready for a big fall…

2- Rise from 1.0461 still in progress, but the’re no enough momentum to push the pair further higher, so the pair will have to correct lower to get the needed momentum to fly once again !!!!

At the moment, the pair is in a corrective pullback mode, Immediate support comes at the 1.1122 levels , stability above this level on a daily closing basis could mean a return to the 1.1466 levels, however; If 1.1122 support holds on a daily closing basis, resistance comes at the 1.1297 levels, break of 1.1297 on a daily closing basis will restore the upside momentum and should recapture the 1.1466 levels with a breach, If seen, don’t expect too much , I think the pair will set a new top  somewhere between 1.1533/1.1679 levels before the next big fall !!!!!

Note that according to weekly chart R%(Williams) indicator, As long as 1.0845 support holds on a weekly closing basis , the pair is likely to top around 1.1730 levels .

At this point, there’s a strong match between daily and weekly %R(Williams), both of them suggest a possible top somewhere a round 1.1700 levels….

1- Daily %(R): 1.1679 is the high of Jan 21 2015 , this level separates between up and down, next resistance comes at the 1.2265/1.2352 levels.

2- Weekly (R): we have a cluster resistance at the 1.1730 levels, (127.2% extension of 1.0461/1.1466 run), the pair is likely to top around this level!!!!!

Conclusion : Any rise above 1.1466 will be limited by the 1.1700 levels , where fall resumption is likely, however; sustained breakout above the 1.1679 levels on a daily closing basis -weekly much better –  will have large bullish implications towards the 1.2265/1.2500 levels………..stability below 1.1679 levels could mean a return to the 1.10845 levels even lower towards the 1.0461 levels!!!!

 

EURUSD_Daily_May_20

EURUSD_Weekly_May_20

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