EURUSD : Large Bullish Reversal In Sight , Resistance 1.1036 ,Support 1.0461

euro-dollar-594

If you read my yearly forecast for EURUSD pair , EURUSD 2015 Forecasts , we had expected the pair to decline towards the 1.1035 levels as the yearly chart explained , here is a quote from our forecast  :

[su_quote]The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum in 2014 , topped at the 1.3993 levels and bottomed at the 1.2097 levels . This development leaves the pair targeting 1.1000 levels , a halt is likely , but a cut would open 1.000 next , further down will pave the way towards the 0.8222 levels (2000 low ) .

On the upside , resistance comes at the 1.2745 levels ( 2014 low ) , sustained trading (monthly) closing basis would open main resistance at the 1.3993 levels where fall resumption is likely , however ; break of 1.3993 levels on a yearly closing basis will suggest that fall from 1.6038 levels ( 2008 high ) is over , If seen , focus will be on the 1.5144 levels ahead of the 1.6035 levels and possible higher !!!

In all , as long as 1.3993 resistance holds on a yearly closing basis , outlook in EURUSD remain on the downside – the upcoming 1 – 3 year(s) , break of the 1.3993 levels on a yearly closing basis should recapture the 1.5144 /1.6035 levels.

Note that losing the 1.2097 levels on a yearly closing basis , will turn 1.2097 from support to resistance level , If seen , strong pressure will be built on the 1.000/0.8220 levels… [/su_quote]

here is the yearly chart we had posted before in the same forecast :

EURUSD_2015_yearly_chart

You may read the whole forecast :

EURUSD 2015 Forecasts 

What happened Next ?!!!

The pair has declined as we expected , reached and breached below the first yearly target 1.1030  , a halt was expected around this level ,  however , the pair breached below 1.1030 , reached 1.0461 then returned to 1.1030 levels and formed a hidden bearish divergence at broken yearly support 1.1035 , look at the weekly chart below :

EURUSD _weekly chart Apr262015

but……..hold on a second ………there’s a lot of interesting things on the weekly time frame , according to weekly time frame , bears are running out of gas , How ?!!

Take a quick look at the weekly chart posted below :

EURUSD _weekly chart Apr_252015_2

First try :Sellers succeeded to top around 1.1036 and forced the pair to decline , but they failed to break below 1.0461 support …

Second try : Sellers try topping around 1.0848 resistance , what happened next ?? they not only failed to break below 1.0519 support , they also have failed to keep the pair below 1.0848 resistance last week  , the key resistance 1.0848 has been broken on a weekly closing basis , what is that supposed to mean ?!!!!
It only means one thing ; bears are running out of gas near yearly support where strong rebound is expected !!!

Conclusion : As long a 1.0461/1.0519 support holds on a weekly closing basis , the EURUSD remains in recovery mode and further upside towards the 1.1036 levels couldn’t be ruled out , break of 1.1036 levels on a weekly closing basis will have large bullish implications towards 1.1533 levels ahead of 1.1997/1.2119 levels , below 1.1036 it will keep consolidating within 1.0461/1.1036 range with possible to break higher , To restore the downside momentum ; losing the key support 1.0461/1.0519 is needed on a weekly closing basis , otherwise the pair will try breaking higher !!!

Notes:

1.The yearly chart suggests possible rebound from the 1.1030 levels towards the key resistance 1.2000 (2014 low) before the next fall..

2. On weekly time frame , break of 1.1036 on a weekly closing basis will put the pair in extended bearish divergence mode , the extended bearish divergence usually comes in trending market , when the market formed a regular or hidden divergence, but it failed to decline and extended higher .

This scenario means there’s no enough momentum to push the pair lower  , as a result the pair will extend higher  to get the needed (required) momentum to push the pair lower !!!

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