At the moment , outlook in EURUSD has turned from bearish to neutral as long as 1.2613 holds on a daily closing basis, the daily closing above the 1.2695 levels , put the pair in recovery mode , and further upside couldn’t be ruled out , but recovery above the 1.2613 should be limited by the 1.2886 levels where fall resumption is suggested . If 1.2886 is taken out, recovery is expected to extend towards the psycho level 1.3000.
On the downside , support comes at the 1.2613 levels , below 1.2613 will turn outlook bearish again and open main support at the 1.2500 levels , losing this on a daily closing basis is needed to resume the large fall from the 1.3993 levels , If seen , a free fall towards the 1.2000/1.1875 levels is strongly suggested ?!!!!
In all , as long as support 1.2613 holds on a daily closing basis , the EURUSD remains in recovery mode , but recovery above the 1.2613 levels should be limited by the 1.2886/1.3000 levels , below 1.2613 will reverse risk to the downside towards the 1.2500 levels where a cut will open 1.2389/1.2300 levels.
Note : I’ve noticed one thing yesterday and the past 2 weeks , the pair is fighting hard to escape away of a massive fall , strong data was not strong enough to drop the pair towards /below 1.2500 levels, heavy longs were made near 1.2500 levels by ECB or market players , so I think the pair may consolidate above 1.2500 for a while before the next leg down , the advice , watch out for news when the pair is near support levels , strong data may not strong enough to drop the pair when it’s near support , so strategy remains selling on resistance levels.(below 1.2500 would open 1.2000 levels, even 1.1875/1.1640 is strongly suggested).