EURUSD Recovers With Caution!
As long as 1.1200/1.1178 support holds on a daily closing basis, the EURUSD remains in a recovery mode and further upside couldn’t be ruled out. Resistance comes at 1.1245 level. A break will extend the corrective recovery to 1.1292 level. The next resistance comes at 1.1345 level ahead of 1.1436 level.
On the downside. Support comes at 1.1200 level. Below that level should weaken the corrective recovery threats and build a strong pressure on 1.1178 level. A cut through support will restore the downside momentum and open 1.1096 level, further down, support comes at 1.0973 level ahead of 1.0838 level.
Conclusion: The EURUSD sees recovery threats above 1.1200 levels with caution!
Support: 1.1200, 1.1178, 1.1096, 1.0973, 1.0838
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1292, 1.1345, 1.1436
Key data/events which may affect EURUSD today:
The U.S will report on Nonfarm Payrolls for Mar at 12:30 GMT. The forecast is to jump to 175K, from 20K a month earlier. The above forecast will support the U.S dollar. Below-forecast is negative for the USD.
The U.S will also report on the Unemployment Rate for Mar at 12:30 GMT. The forecast is to remains the same as the previous month 3.8%. Below-forecast will support the U.S dollar. The above forecast is negative for the USD.
How both reports (Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate) will affect the market?!
Scenario # 1: If both reports are positive. The EURUSD is likely to spike to 1.1245/1.1292 range before falling to 1.1200/1.1178 level. A cut through support is strongly suggested to the 1.1096 level. If seen broken support 1.1178/1.1200 should serve as strong resistance.
Scenario # 2: If both reports are negative, The EURUSD will continue recovering as expected in our forecast, it may dip to 1.1178/1.1200 levels before flying to 1.1245/1.1292 levels. A break couldn’t be ruled out to the 1.1345 level.
Scenario # 3: One report is positive and the other is negative. A sideways move is expected within 1.1178/1.1292 range.