Hello everyone, and happy new year to you all!!!
I hope you enjoyed 2013, and I’ll do my best to make 2014 one of your best trading years , last year the EURUSD moved upward as expected, according to the yearly chart , there’s a room for further upside to test 1.4090/1.4500 levels before falling towards 1.2000 levels, anyway , sustained taring above 1.4500 levels will open 1.5000 levels and possible higher….note that we have minor resistance at 1.3870 levels , sustained trading above this level will open 1.4500 levels.
Finally, I’m gonna use this forecast as a reference for monthly and weekly forecasts, to capture turning points and big moves in the market, so stay tuned for updates…
Before we start , I put 2 strategies for 2014 to make the forecast more effectively, wish you all good luck in 2014 !!!
Strategy 1 :
Recommendations: LONG positions around 1.3400 with 1.4000 & 1.4400 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3104 will open 1.2795/1.2495 levels.
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.4441 with 1.3800 & 1.3500 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.4441 will open 1.4685/1.4940 levels.
Description: With the key support 1.3104 intact, further upside couldn’t be ruled out and there’s no resistance but 1.4083 ahead of 1.4441 (main). around this level, sellers may dominate the market, so selling pair after rejection on a weekly basis is recommended, but If 1.4441 fails on a weekly expect the market to strengthen further towards 1.4685 ahead of 1.4940 levels. On the downside, support comes at 1.3400 ahead of 1.3104 (main), buying the pair is recommended after rejection on weekly, losing 1.3104 on a weekly basis will reverse risks to the downside towards 1.2795 ahead of 1.2495 levels.
Conclusion: Overall outlook will remain bullish with risk towards 1.4083 ahead of 1.4441 and possibly higher as long as 1.3104 holds on a weekly closing basis.
1-Main support comes at 1.3104 levels, If the pair holds below this level on a weekly basis, 1.3400 should limit any upside move above 1.3104 and bring resumption towards 1.2795/1.2495 levels. If the pair holds below 1.3104 then breaks above 1.3400, sooner or later It would target 1.4000 levels and possible higher…
2- Main resistance comes at the 1.4441 levels, If the pair holds above this level, 1.4083 should contain any downside move below 1.4441 and bring rebound towards 1.4685/1.4940 levels. If the pair holds above 1.4441 then breaks below 1.4083 on a weekly basis, sooner or later it would target 1.3400 and possibly lower!
Trend Direction: Upward
Support & Resistance :
1.4441 – Bullish breakout level
1.4441 – Maximum Overbought
1.4083 – Overbought
1.3400 – Oversold
1.3104 – Maximum Oversold
1.3104 – Bearish Breakout Level
1.3104 – Pivot level for 2014
EURUSD – Weekly Chart