EURUSD 2014 FORECASTS (Recap) Aug 12 2014

EURO Dollar min

Hello everyone ……

If you read my EURUSD  forecast  of 2014, you can easily notice that the pair is now trading at a strong demand zone  (1.3400/1.3105) levels ………

At the moment , the pair is around 1.3350 levels , resistance comes at the 1.3424/1.3444 levels on the daily time frame , sustained trading above this level on a daily basis will bring strong recovery towards the 1.3700 levels………..

On the weekly time frame , resistance comes at the 1.3700 levels , break of 1.3700 on a weekly basis will confirm rebound from the 1.3105/1.3400 levels , If seen , a higher leg above the 1.4000 levels couldn’t be ruled out towards the 1.4400 levels……

On the downside , to confirm reversal from the 1.3993 levels , sustained trading on a weekly basis below the 1.3105  levels is needed , If seen , next support would be 1.2500 levels ahead of the 1.2000 levels……

According to the monthly chart posted below , the pair has declined almost 650 pips the last 3 months , but according to momentum indicators  (%R), the pair has declined with no momentum , the idea bears are running out gas…..at this point we have 2 options :

1- The pair might retest the 1.3700/1.4000 levels to get the necessary momentum to fall towards the 1.3000 levels…

2- This last fall could be false , the pair has declined towards the 1.3105/1.3400 levels to get the necessary momentum to make a higher leg above the 1.4000 levels….

Finally ,  RSI also supports %(R) Williams strongly , according to RSI , the pair has printed support at the 1.1875 levels (Jun 2010 low) , since then , RSI has not reached oversold  level yet , so as long as 1.1875 holds on a monthly closing basis , the pair is likely to reach the 1.5000 levels…….

Conclusion : EURUSD could dip towards the 1.3200 levels before flying towards the 1.3700/1.4000 levels….

Recommendations for position traders : Buying the pair below the 1.3400 levels targeting the 1.3700 levels ahead of the 1.4000 levels , and you  could add 3rd target around 1.4400 levels …

Alternative Scenario  : Selling the pair below 1.3105 levels (weekly closing basis ) targeting the 1.2500 levels ahead of the 1.2000 levels…..

EURUSD 2014 FORECASTS (Recap) Aug 12 2014

MARKET DATA

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS