Daily Fundamental Forecast Dec 18 2014

forex y0vkmv min
forex y0vkmv min

As we expected in the weekly forecast , the US dollar gained after FOMC meeting , while Yellen was speaking in the press conference yesterday , the USD gained against most of its pairs , the EURUSD declined and lost its main support at 1.2415 levels , GBPUSD also lost its main support at 1.5600 levels , the pair is under heavy pressure now ,  USDJPY rebounded from 115.50 levels and took out the key resistance 117.70 ,Crude Oil spiked through the key resistance 57.35 and returned below it , remains under pressure , GOLD declined to 1182 levels but returned later to 1200 levels , USDINDEX took out all resistance levels and broke above 89.00 levels , the pair is very very bullish now , suggesting further gains for the USD dollar in nearest days …however ;

Yellen’s speech focused on two points:

  1.  No change in policy !!!
  2. The US dollar is set to rise in 2015 !!

That was enough to boost the Us dollar ……Anyway , let’s highlight the most important data which may influence currency market today :

  • German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec) at 09:00 , Forecast 105.4 m  , Last read 104.7 m . A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
  • UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)  at 09:30 , Forecast  0.3% Last read 0.8% . A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims  at 13:30 , Forecast 295K , Last read 294K , A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  • US Services PMI (Dec) at  14:45 . Forecast 57.1 , Last read 56.2 . A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)  at 15:00 . Forecast 26.6 , Last read 40.8 . A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

*All times are GMT.

Conclusion :

Positive German data is likely to bring rebound to the nearest resistance before the next fall , negative data will accelerator the the bearish move for the EURUSD …

Positive UK data is likely to bring rebound to the nearest resistance before the next fall , negative data will accelerator the the bearish move for the GBPUSD …

Positive US data will boost the USD , while negative US data will bring pullback before the next rise ……….In all , buy the USD on dips !!!!

 

MARKET DATA

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