The euro recovered strongly yesterday, after hitting its lowest level in 28 months,during trading on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank will re-evaluate the need for more stimulus next year.
As Draghi speaks , the EURUSD declines to 1.2279 levels , then rebounded strongly to the upside passed the daily resistance at the 1.3476 levels , reached 1.2455 levels before falling late at night and closed exactly at the daily resistance 1.2376 !!!
The smart question ? what is next ?!!! will the EURUSD rise today and the upcoming days or it will fall again !!!
It depends on US data today , the pair is neutral and faces a recovery risk , negative US nonfarm payroll could push the pair towards the 1.2600 levels while positive nonfarm payroll numbers could resume the bearish trend .
USDINDEX also faces a pullback risk below 88.21 levels , stability above this level could mean resuming the bullish trend . conclusion : US data today will give us a clue about the next move for the upcoming days and probably weeks. Any way let’s highlight the most critical data for today :
1-US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) at 13:30 . Last read was 214K , forecast is 225K . Market Impact : we have 3 scenarios for the USD :
- A reading between 215 K and 240 K will bring sideways move with bullish bias for the USD , currencies against the USD are likely to trade within support and resistance range with high volatility , note that 1 level could be broken up or down, simply follow the market !!!
- A reading above 240 K are likely to bring strong bullish move for the USD , the USD are likely to move upward strongly (USDJPY,USDCHF,..etc) , 1 or 2 resistance levels could be broken , currencies against the USD (EURUSD ,GBPUSD,.etc) are likely to fall, 1 or or 2 support levels could be broken !
- A reading below 215 K are likely to bring bearish move for the USD , (USDJPY,USDCHF,..etc) , 1 or 2 support levels could be broken , currencies against the USD (EURUSD ,GBPUSD,..etc) are likely to rise , 1 or 2 resistance levels could broken .
2-US Unemployment Rate (Nov) at 13:30 . Last rate was 5.8% . forecast is 5.8% . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
3-Canadian Employment Change (Nov) at 13:30 . Last read was 43.1K , forecast is 5.0K. Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
*All times are GMT