Daily Fundamental Forecast Dec 05 2014

Forex22 nt94r2
Forex22 nt94r2

The euro recovered strongly yesterday, after hitting its lowest level in 28 months,during trading on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank will re-evaluate the need for more stimulus next year.

As Draghi speaks , the EURUSD declines to 1.2279 levels , then rebounded strongly to the upside passed the daily resistance at the 1.3476 levels , reached 1.2455 levels before falling late at night and closed exactly at the daily resistance 1.2376 !!!

The smart question ? what is next ?!!! will the EURUSD rise today and the upcoming days or it will fall again !!!

It depends on US data  today , the pair is neutral and faces a recovery risk , negative US nonfarm payroll could push the pair towards the 1.2600 levels while positive nonfarm payroll numbers could resume the bearish trend .

USDINDEX also faces a pullback risk below 88.21 levels , stability above this level could mean resuming the bullish  trend . conclusion : US data today will give us a clue about the next move for the upcoming days and probably weeks. Any way let’s highlight the most critical data for today :

1-US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) at 13:30 . Last read was 214K , forecast is 225K . Market Impact : we have 3 scenarios for the USD :

  • A reading between 215 K and 240 K will bring sideways move with bullish bias for the USD , currencies against the USD are likely to trade within support and resistance range with high volatility , note that 1 level could be broken up or down, simply follow the market !!!
  • A reading  above  240 K are likely to bring strong bullish move for the USD , the USD are likely to move upward strongly (USDJPY,USDCHF,..etc) , 1 or 2 resistance levels could be broken , currencies against the USD (EURUSD ,GBPUSD,.etc) are likely to fall, 1 or or 2 support levels could be broken !
  • A reading below 215 K are likely to bring bearish move for the USD , (USDJPY,USDCHF,..etc) , 1 or 2 support levels could be broken , currencies against the USD (EURUSD ,GBPUSD,..etc) are likely to rise , 1 or 2 resistance levels could broken .

2-US Unemployment Rate (Nov) at 13:30 . Last rate was 5.8% . forecast is 5.8% . Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

3-Canadian Employment Change (Nov) at 13:30 . Last read was 43.1K , forecast is 5.0K. Market Impact :A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

*All times are GMT

MARKET DATA

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS

4 COMMENTS

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