Market -Weekly Outlook Oct 22 2018


In the week ahead, the global financial market will shift their focus to third-quarter U.S. growth data for a further indication about the strength of the US economy. They will also pay close attention to comments from some Fed speakers this week for additional information on the outlook for monetary policy in the coming months. In Europe, markets are watching the ECB’s monetary policy meeting for further guidance on whether the central bank plans to end its bond-buying program and start raising interest rates.

Before we continue, let’s highlight U.S Dollar index technical analysis for the week ahead for further information about the strength of the U.S dollar…

U.S Dollar Index: Bullish, Eyes 96.00 Levels.

as long as 95.18 support holds on a daily closing basis, the U.S dollar index remains on the upside to 96.00 level, a halt is likely and it may test 95.68 level before attempts to break higher, anyway; above 96.00 level will aim 96.44 levels, further upside, resistance comes at 97.10 level.

On the downside, below 95.18 will reverse risk to the downside to 94.58 level, it may turn higher from here but if this fails to happen, it will decline to 94.13 level, further down, support comes at 93.85 level.

Critical levels that need to be watched during the NEWS carefully: 95.18, and 96.00

Conclusion: The U.S dollar index sees upside threats above 95.18 level.

Support: 95.18, 94.58, 94.13, 93.85

Resistance: 95.70, 96.00, 96.44, 97.10

Here is a list of the most important events that are likely to affect the market:

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

  • FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 13:30 GMT.
  • BoE Gov Carney Speaks at 15:20 GMT. Volatility is expected. (A selling opportunity is likely for GBPUSD).
  • FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 17:30 GMT.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

  • Germany will report on its Manufacturing PMI (Oct) at 07:30 GMT. The forecast is to fall 83.5, from 53.7 a month earlier. (A selling opportunity is likely).
  • The U.S will report on New Home Sales (Sep) at 14:00 GMT. The forecast is 630K, any reading above 630K will support the USD.
  • Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 GMT. The central bank is expected to raise the interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 1.50 percent to 1.75 percent. We’ll talk about this with details and possible opportunities on USDCAD tomorrow, stay tuned. 
  • FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 15:30 GMT.
  • FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 17:00 GMT.
  • FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 17:10 GMT.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

  • European Central Bank Policy Meeting at 11:45 GMT. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates at their current record low levels at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting. President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference 45 minutes after the interest rate announcement as investors seek more signals on when the central bank plans to start raising borrowing costs. Note that EURUSD is close to a critical support on weekly timeframe around 1.1435 levels, any unexpected news -surprises -from Draghi may bring a strong rebound to the upside.
  • The U.S will report on Durable Goods Orders (Sep) at 12:30 GMT. The forecast is to fall -1.0%, from 4.4% in the preceding month. Core Durable Goods Orders is expected to rise by 0.5%, from0.1% a month earlier. Any reading above forecast will support the USD.
  • FOMC Member Clarida Speaks at 16:15 GMT.
  • FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 23:00 GMT.

Friday, October 26, 2018

  • FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 01:00 GMT.
  • U.S Advanced Third Quarter GDP at 12:30 GMT. The U.S economy is expected to expand at an annual rate of 3.3% in the July-Sept period, down from a growth of 4.2%. Any reading above 3.3% is supposed to support the USD while below that level may bring a corrective pullback.
  • ECB President Draghi Speaks at 14:00 GMT.

You can follow the rest of the week’s economic events by visiting:

Live Economic Calendar

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