Last Week Recap
The dollar fell against a basket of the other major currencies last week, as U.S index still under pressure below 94.50 levels. Immediate support 93.27/93.02 levels. At this point, I’d expect a strong support from the 93.02/93.02 levels to contain fall from the 95.02 levels and bring rebound, however, below 93.02 will extend losses to the 92.45 levels, further down, support stands at the 91.95 levels ahead of the 91.18 levels.
On the upside, resistance comes at the 94.18 levels ahead of the 94.50 levels, a break will aim the double top resistance at the 95.02 levels, above that level will extend gains 96.21 levels ahead of the 97.11 levels.
Conclusion: The U.S Dolar Index continues to face downside threats below the 94.50 levels, above 94.50 will challenge the 95.02 levels.
Note that weekly chart support comes at the 92.87 levels, below that level on a weekly closing basis will reverse risk to the 90.75/89.83 levels. Above 92.87 is likely to return to the 95.02 levels, above that level will pave the way to the 97.12 levels.
In the week ahead, the global financial markets will shift their focus to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision and publish data on its economic projections. No changes are expected but the market is watching for more clues about the last Fed’s meeting in this year on Dec. 12-13.
Here is a list of the biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets this week:
Wednesday, November 22
The U.S will release data on durable goods orders and unemployment claims. Later in the day, the Fed will publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting.
Thursday, November 23
Financial markets in Japan will be closed for a holiday.
Financial markets in the U.S will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Germany will produce revised data on third-quarter economic growth followed by German Manufacturing PMI.
The UK will produce revised data on third-quarter economic growth.
The ECB will publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting.
Canada will report on retail sales.
Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan will speak at an event in Basel.
Friday, November 24
Financial markets in the U.S will be closed early at 13:00 GMT (The Day After Thanksgiving).
Germany will report on its Ifo Business Climate Index for Nov.
You can follow the rest of the week’s economic events by visiting:
Conclusion: As long as the USD index trades below 94.50 selling the US dollar on rebound is recommended. As Thursday and Friday holiday in the United States, the U.S dollar may recover during this time…