Market -Weekly Outlook Mar 19 2018

In the week ahead, the global financial markets will focus on the Fed's monetary policy meeting, the first with Jerome Powell as president.

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USD Index Consolidates With Downside Bias!

As long as 90.95 resistance holds on a weekly closing basis, the USD Index remains neutral with a risk to the downside, support comes at the 88.82/87.78 levels, a halt is likely but a cut through support level will restore the downside momentum and open the 85.20 levels, further down, support comes at the 82.65 levels.

On the upside, above 90.95 sees a recovery risk to the 92.38/93.17 levels, next resistance comes at the 95.02  levels.

Conclusion: The USD Index continues to consolidate with downside risk below 90.95 levels.

In the week ahead, the global financial markets will focus on the Fed’s monetary policy meeting, the first with Jerome Powell as president.

This is a list of the most important economic news for the week:

1-U.K Employment Report

The U.K will report on Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) and Claimant Count Change (Feb) on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT.  Average Earnings Index is expected to rise 2.6%, from 2.5% a month earlier. Claimant Count Change is also expected to rise -3.1K, from -7.2K in the preceding month. (It will affect the U.K pairs, U.K stocks, and Metals).

2- Federal Reserve Rate Decision

The Fed is expected to raise rates by a quarter point to 1.75%, from 1.5% at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. (It will affect the USD pairs, U.S stocks, WTI Oil, and metals).

3- RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement on Wednesday at 23:00 GMT. The central bank is expected to leave the rate unchanged at 1.75%. (It will affect the NZD pairs and metals).

4- Bank of England Policy Announcement & European Council summit 

The BoE will announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference shortly after the announcement. The central bank is expected to leave the rate unchanged at 0.5%. Karny’s remarks will be closely watched. (It will affect the U.K pairs, U.K stocks, and Metals).

Earlier in the day, the U.K will report on Retail Sales at 09:30 GMT. Analysts expect a rise to 0.4%, from 0.1% in the preceding month. (It will affect the U.K pairs, U.K stocks, and Metals).

Brexit developments will also be focused in EU summit on Thursday and Friday as negotiators try to reach an agreement on the UK’s transition period to leave the EU. (It will affect the U.K pairs, U.K stocks, and Metals).

At this point, I think we have 2 options:

  • If they reach an agreement, the GBPUSD will continue flying.
  • If they don’t, the GBPUSD will consolidate with an upside bias. (any decline is a buying opportunity).

5- U.S Durable Goods Orders

The U.S will report on Durable Goods Orders for Feb on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect a rise 1.5%, from -3.6% a month earlier. Core Durable Goods Orders is also expected to rise 0.5%, from -0.3% in the preceding month.(It will affect the USD pairs, U.S stocks, WTI Oil, and metals).

You can follow the rest of the week’s economic events by visiting:

Live Economic Calendar

 

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