Market -Weekly Outlook Dec 04 2017

In the week ahead, the global financial markets will shift their focus to U.S Friday's employment report for further hints on the timing of the next U.S rate hike.


U.S Dollar Index

Outlook in USDINDEX remains neutral with risk to the downside as long as 93.28 resistance holds on a daily closing basis, support comes at the 92.46 levels. At this point, I’d expect a strong support from the 92.46 levels to contain fall from the 95.04 levels and bring rebound, anyway; a sustained breakout below the 92.46 will suggest a large bearish implication to the 91.19 levels ahead of the 90.09 levels and possibly lower.

On the upside, above 93.28 sees a recovery risk to the 94.00 levels where a break will aim the 94.52 levels, further upside will target the double top resistance at the 95.04 levels.

Conclusion: The U.S Dollar Index Continues to face downside threats below 93.28 levels.

Support and resistance levels: 90.09 (critical), 91.19, 91.97, 92.46 (critical), 93.28, 94.00, 94.050, 95.04 (critical), 95.59, 96.08

In the week ahead, the global financial markets will shift their focus to U.S Friday’s employment report for further hints on the timing of the next U.S rate hike.

This is a list of the most important economic news for the week:

1.Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting

The RBA’s latest interest rate decision will be published on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT. Most economists expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged at the current record-low of 1.5%. Earlier in the same day, Retail Sales data will be published at 00:30 GMT. 

Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy.

On Wednesday, Australia will release data on the third-quarter economic growth at 00:30 GMT.

2. U.K Services PMI & Manufacturing Production data.

The U.K will release data on services PMI on Tuesday at 09:00 GMT. Analysts expect a decline to 55.0, from 55.6 in the preceding month.

On Friday at 09:00 GMT. The U.K will report on Manufacturing Production. Analysts expect a slide to -0.1%, from 0.7% a month earlier.

U.K data may bring a buying opportunity for GBPUSD…

3. Bank of Canada Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Analysts expect the central bank to hold its benchmark rate at 1.0%.

4. Japan Third-Quarter Economic Growth

Japan will report on the third-quarter economic growth on Thursday at 23:50 GMT. Analysts expect that the Japanese economy will expand 0.4%, from 0.3%…

5. U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Employment Report 

The U.S will release data on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT. Analysts expect a fall to 59.1, from 60.1 in the preceding month.

On Friday at 13:30 GMT. The U.S Labor Department will release its November nonfarm payrolls report.

The forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 200,000, reversing from 261,000 positions in October, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.1%.

You can follow the rest of the week’s economic events by visiting:

Live Economic Calendar

Conclusion: I remain bearish on the U.S dollar, despite there are some signs of recovery, but still early to talk about that, with the key resistance 95.04 intact, any rise below that level will be limited and followed by another fall…


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