The U.K Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May), rose 3.4%, from 3.2% a month earlier, passing a forecast of 3.1%. While U.K Claimant Count Change (Jun), rose 30K, from 24.5K in the previous month, missing a forecast of 18.9K, putting the GBP under pressure. Anyway; since the Average Earnings Index comes positive, the report comes mixed with a bullish tone. This development may push GBP a little bit to the upside.
Technically: In the short-term forecast: the pair is recovery above 1.2458/1.2500 levels. Main support comes at 1.2500 levels. Below this level may expose the 1.2458 levels and pave the way to 1.2357 levels.
In the medium-term outlook: The pair is bearish below 1.2700 levels. Any rebound from 1.2458/1.2500 is likely to be limited below 1.2700 where fall resumption is likely. But a sustained breakout -daily closing- above 1.2700 will terminate the bearish trend and suggest a higher leg above 1.2782 levels.
Will buyers hold ?!
Maybe yes…U.K data somehow positive for today, but that’s not everything?!! We also have three important news for the day.
- BoE Gov Carney Speaks at 12:00 GMT.
- U.S Retail Sales data at 12:30 GMT.
- Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:00 GMT.
In conclusion: the pair trades below 1.2500 levels at the moment. it’s an early warning for further weakness. But a clear break below 1.2458 is needed to open the way to/ below 1.2400 levels.
Above 1.2500 ( daily closing): Sideways with a bullish tone (recovering).
Between 1.2458/1.2500 (daily closing): Sideways with a bearish tone. It may break lower, but, it may dip below 1.2458 sharply, then recover higher to close around /above 1.2500 levels…
Below 1.2458 (daily closing): A strong bearish trend…
Support: 1.2500, 1.2458, 1.2400, 1.2357, 1.2285
Resistance: 1.2590, 1.2630, 1.2690, 1.2743, 1.2840