EURUSD – Weekly Forecast 30 Dec-03 Jan

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Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3624 with 1.3810 & 1.3880 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.3624 will open 1.3480/1.3400 levels.
Description: The EURUSD rose last week towards 1.3892 levels, with the key support 1.3624 intact, further upside couldn’t be ruled out, break of 1.3880 should target the psychological level 1.4000.On the downside, losing the key support 1.3624 is needed to signal short term topping and open 1.3480/1.3400 levels, otherwise, the risk will remain to the upside.

Support and resistance levels : 1.3320, 1.3400 , 1.3480 , 1.3624 (Pivot) ,1.3680, 1.3810 , 1.3880 , 1.4020

Key data/events which may influence EURUSD  this week:

  1. US – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) – Monday  15:00 GMT – The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.Pending Home Sales has been falling the past few months, the last read was -0.6%, this month is expected to rise to 1.0%.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  2. The US – CB Consumer Confidence – Tuesday 15:00 GMT – Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in the overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism… CB Consumer Confidence has been falling the past few months, the last read was -70.4, this month is expected to gain to 76.0. note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
  3. EUR – German Manufacturing PMI – Thursday 08:53 GMT – The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. German Manufacturing PMI has been rising for the past weeks, this week is expected to be stopped at 54.2 as the previous read, however.; A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
  4. US – Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday   13:30 GMT –  Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.Initial claims were declined to 338 K  last week, this week is expected to continue falling towards 334 K. Note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
  5. US –  ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) –  Thursday 15:00 GMT – The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50  is bullish, whereas a reading below 50 is seen as bearish. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.This indicator continued to rise since last April, last month was 57.3, this month is expected to make a slight decline towards 57.0.Note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

All times are GMT

MARKET DATA

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS

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