A quick forecast ahead of U.S jobs report?!

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The United States will publish 2 reports on the status of jobs over the past month, excluding the farming industry today at 12:30 GMT.

1- Nonfarm Payrolls (May), market analysts expect a rise to 189K, from 164K a month earlier, note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

2- Unemployment Rate (May), market analysts expect arise to 58.2, from 57.3 in the preceding month. Note that a higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

How will the two reports affect the market today?!

we have 3 scenarios:

Scenario # 1: If both reports are positive, the USD will rise, How this scenario will affect the market?!!

EURUSD: The pair will dip below 1.1647 testing 1.1590 a halt is likely but a cut will aim 1.1545/1.1509 levels, any upside move is a selling opportunity (capped by 1.1720).

GBPUSD: The pair will dip to the 1.3220 levels where a break will aim the 1.3135 levels. Resistance comes at the 1.3300 levels ahead of the 1.3385 levels.

USDJPY: After rejection from 108.30 levels, the pair trades at the moment above the key resistance 108.95, a further upside to the 110.08 levels is very likely, above that level -unlikely to break it- will aim the 111.00 levels, On the downside support comes at the 108.30 levels any decline above that level is a buying opportunity!

Scenario # 2: If both reports are negative, the USD will fall, How this scenario will affect the market?!!

EURUSD: The EURUSD will continue rising to 1.1720 levels where a break will aim the 1.1789 levels, support comes at the 1.1647 levels ahead of the 1.1590 levels, any decline is a buying opportunity!

GBPUSD: The pair will rise above 1.3300 levels testing main resistance at 1.3385 levels, a break above that level is unlikely and we may see a quick fall from that level to close lower below 1.3300 levels, anyway above 1.3385 will aim the 1.3527 levels.

USDJPY: The pair will challenge the key support 108.30 If fails to hold, it will decline further to 107.50 levels, next support comes at the 106.60. Any upside will be limited by 110.08 levels.

Scenario # 3: One report is positive and the other is negative?!! The market will continue moving in the current direction (sideways move). How this scenario will affect the market?!!

EURUSD: Buy on dips, any decline will be limited by support levels 1.1647 ahead of 1.1590 levels. On the upside, resistance comes at 1.1720, it may test it and decline to test 1.1647 before another rise, above 1.1720 will aim 1.1789 levels, if breaks above 1.1720, this level will serve as a strong support level…

GBPUSD: Expected range 1.3220/1.3385 levels, a minor level comes at 1.3305.

USDJPY: Buy on dips, it may test 108.30 before another rise, expected range 108.30/110.10, a minor level is seen around 108.95/109.25…

You can follow U.S jobs report in real time from here:

Live Economic Calendar

 

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